Big News (3 Big Analysis) for the week ending 23rd December 2016

Macros 2016

How the economy shaped up during the year 2016…

As year 2016 approaches its end, it is time to look back at the key macro trends for the year. The year was positive in some ways and challenging in other ways. Here are four macros that defined the year 2016…

GDP falters in second half…

 2016 began with estimates of GDP crossing 7.6% for the year. However, GDP growth was quite lackluster from the second quarter onwards. Full year GDP may find it hard to even grow at 7.2%. This was before the impact of demonetization. It remains to be seen how much the demonetization will end up impacting the eventual full year GDP growth. This puts India in a piquant situation as she was counting on a 100 bps gap over China to push the India story quite aggressively to global investors. In fact, global investors are expecting a shock fall in Q3 and Q4 GDP with full year GDP coming in lower than 6.9%. That could be a worry!

Tata Group

The group now needs to look beyond the immediate battle…

The acrimonious battle between the Tata faction and the Mistry faction almost ended in a whimper with Cyrus Mistry resigning from the boards of all the Tata group companies. With the removal of Nusli Wadia also from key boards, the Tata group may not face any real threat of control. However, there are 3 major challenges ahead…

MPC Minutes

Again, a consensus within the MPC on the rate decision…

Like the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the second meeting of the MPC also saw 100% consensus among its 6 members. Three distinct trends emerge from the minutes of the MPC, with important cues for the road ahead for monetary policy.

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