Highlights of the Week (Jan 02 – Jan 06) and Impact Analysis

Major News Item Impact Analysis
   
Ø Key assembly election dates announced by the Election Commission (EC)

Ø Elections across Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, UP and Manipur to begin on Feb 04th and complete on March 08th.

Ø Election results of all five states to be declared on March 11th. The largest state of UP will be seeing a 7-phase election

 

Ø Opposition demands shifting the budget to mid-March

Ø Opposition is of the view that a budget announcement on Feb 01st will enable government to influence voters with sops

Ø There is a precedent in 2012 when the Union Budget was moved to mid-March to accommodate state elections

 

Ø IT stocks underperformed the markets during the week

Ø The negative cues began with Vishal Sikka cautioning that growth could take a backseat in the year 2017

Ø The situation got compounded on fears that the US may choose to hike the minimum pay for H1-B visas

 

Ø Prime Minister announces series of sops in his New Year speech

Ø There is a special interest subvention scheme announced by the PM for low cost housing to alleviate the liquidity pain

Ø Kisan credit cards will be converted into RUPAY cards and farmers to also get selective waiver on interest on loans

 

Ø OPEC production cuts have gone live from January 01st 2017

Ø Effective 01st Jan, OPEC and non-OPEC output stands cut by 1.8 million bpd, with 1.2 million bpd coming from OPEC

Ø Oil prices have remained buoyant since November 30th and Brent Crude has rallied from $45/bbl to $56/bbl

 

Ø Auto numbers turn out to be better than expected for December 2016

Ø Maruti saw flat numbers with pressure only coming in from entry level cars like the Alto and Wagon-R

Ø Two-wheelers led by Hero Honda saw a sharp decline in sales as the liquidity crunch hit the entry segment the most

 

Ø India saw its PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services below the 50-mark in Dec

Ø PMI manufacturing at 49.6 was sharply lower while PMI Services at 46.8 was almost at par with previous month

Ø PMI of below 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is contracting and is an outcome of demonetization

 

Ø DTAA with Singapore modified on lines with the Mauritius Treaty

Ø DTAA is a mechanism to avoid double taxation where foreign portfolio investors end up paying taxes in both countries

Ø The modification is to plug double non-taxation, improve tax compliance and curb the growth of black money

 

Ø PE deals in 2016 at $15.2 billion was the 2nd best year for PE deals

Ø The previous record was $17.3 billion recorded in the calendar year 2015. The number of PE deals stood at 620

Ø The biggest PE deal during the year was the sale of RCOM’s tower business to Brookfield of Canada

 

Ø India Core Sector output growth came in at 4.9% for November 2016

Ø This is sharply lower than the 6.6% core sector growth recorded in the month of October 2016

Ø Electricity generation was the star performer with 10% growth even as oil extraction lagged in negative territory

   
Ø Medium and Long term gilt funds benefit from demonetization

Ø The surplus liquidity in the banking system has pushed bond yields sharply downward resulting in capital gains

Ø Gilt funds have given annualized returns in excess of 15% and dynamic bond funds have also outperformed the markets>

 

Ø SBI takes the lead by cutting MCLR by 90 bps on its lending book

Ø Banks were forced to cut MCLR as the demonetization liquidity created a deluge of deposits with languid loan growth

Ø This forced SBI to take the lead in cutting the MCLR followed by other banks. Transmission is now 100% since Jan 2015

 

Ø M&A activity touched an all-time high of $72.4 billion in year 2016

Ø This is the highest level of M&A in a single year since 2007, when total M&A of $67 billion had been recorded

Ø Energy & Power accounted for 30% of M&A deals, Financial Services 26%, Hi-Tech 19.5% and Industrials 11.5%

 

Ø Government achieves 60% of its disinvestment target in first 8 months

Ø A total of Rs.23,432 crore has been raised in Mar-Nov period through minority stake sale and through SUUTI sale

Ø The government has been more conservative in targets this year after falling over 50% short last year

 

Ø Union budget may levy a safety cess on railway bookings from next fiscal

Ø The Railways has an outlay of Rs.125,000 crore for rail safety of which only 25% will come as government support

Ø While the impact of the safety cess will be lower on the upper class bookings, it will impact the ordinary bookings more

 

Ø New currency in circulation could touch 89% by Feb 2017 as per SBI report

Ø According to RBI data, while 44% of demonetized currency was reissued by Dec 2016 it will touch 89% by Feb 2017

Ø This has been facilitated by the aggressive focus on printing 2000-denomination notes and also lower value notes

 

Ø Global PE giant, KKR, may be looking to buy a major stake in Fortis Healthcare

Ø This group, owned by the Singh Brothers, has been seeking to improve its position through liquidity infusion

Ø The deal could be either in the form of an equity stake or a structured equity deal on the holding company

 

Ø SEBI proposes detailed guidelines for evaluation of listed company boards

Ø The idea will be to give greater continuity and a proper framework for the selection and removal of board members

Ø This is apparently based on the Tata group fiasco wherein the role of independent directors came into question

 

Ø Full year GDP estimates came in at 7.1% for 2016-17

Ø The GDP estimates are substantially lower than the original estimate of 7.6% for the full year 2016-17

Ø It needs to be remembered that the full impact of demonetizati9on has not been factored into estimates

 

Ø Boeing of the US to seal a $10 billion order for aircraft from Spice Jet

Ø The order from Spice Jet will be for 92 Boeing 737 liners which will more than double the fleet capacity of Spice Jet in India

Ø This gives Spice Jet the ammunition to compete with market leader Indigo on more equal terms in the aviation space

 

Ø SEBI may allow Mutual Funds to invest in REITS and INVITs

Ø These products may be classified as alternate securities and MFs may be permitted to invest under that category

Ø REITS are a mechanism of pooling real estate assets and hiving them off to investors