Weekly Capsule (Feb 05 – Feb 09) and Impact Analysis

Budget Announcement Budget Impact
Monetary Policy maintained status quo on repo rates at 6%
  • This was largely along expected lines as inflation was higher and global bond yields are also heading higher
  • The MPC’s guidance in excess of 5.1% inflation is indicative of the bottoming out of yields and prospects of rate hikes
Air India reported 50% higher net losses at Rs.5700 crore in FY-17
  • This rise in losses was due to a provision of Rs.1150 crore on account of expired and unapproved SFI scrip
  • This could have a bearing on the valuation of Air India when it goes in for strategic stake sale this fiscal year
ACC doubled its profits for the quarter ended December 2017
  • This performance was largely on the back of ACC’s focus on the higher-margin premium cement business
  • This is appreciable considering that the housing market is quite tepid in the aftermath of RERA implementation
Brent crude prices fell below $65/bbl from a higher level of $71/bbl
  • Despite the OPEC supply cut the prices of oil have been falling due to the expectations of US shale supply
  • India will be worried about a bounce back in oil prices as it puts stress on the Balance of Payments
Vedanta to incur losses of Rs.2000 crore due to mining license cancellation
  • It may be recollected that the Supreme Court had cancelled all the mining licenses worth 20 million tonnes in Goa
  • Vedanta with nearly 5.5 million tonnes capacity in Goa will face losses to the tune of Rs.2000 crore
ONGC may sell its stakes in IOCL and GAIL to fund acquisitions
  • ONGC will be paying $5.5 billion to acquire government’s 51.1% stake in HPCL
  • This stake sale plan indicates that more such stake buys by ONGC may be lined up this year for oil sector consolidation
FPIs may now start preferring the France and the Netherlands route
  • With 10% tax on LTCG applicable to FPIs too, most FPIs may not prefer Singapore and Mauritius due to treaty restrictions
  • Routing through France and the Netherlands will still give them the hedge against paying tax on LTCG
India doubles the import duty on sugar from 50% to 100%
  • This is because due to the fall in global prices of sugar, mills are finding it hard to pay higher prices to cane farmers
  • Global sugar prices are down by over 17% since October 2017 and that is taking its toll on sugar companies
Equity markets see wealth destruction of Rs.10 trillion since budget
  • The concerns over the impact of tax on LTCG was only one side of the story in this fall
  • The fall was also largely in sympathy with global markets as global bond yields continue their upward spree
India gets tough on crypto currencies with follow-up action
  • The IT department has already sent notices to over 1 lakh persons in India who have not reported crypto profits
  • In the budget the FM had emphasized that India will not consider crypto currencies like Bitcoin as legal tender
Motilal Oswal AMC sees Rs30,000 crore of domestic money in the sidelines
  • This money was more likely to come in after the 2000 points correction in the Sensex made valuations attractive
  • Many volatile and high beta stocks have corrected very sharply and this could just be the opportunity to re-enter
Jerome Powell officially takes over as the new Fed Chairperson
  • He replaces Janet Yellen, who had steered the Fed through a very difficult and tumultuous time period
  • Growth is back in the US and unemployment is below 5% paving the road for rate hikes during the year
Tata Motors missed its street estimates in the December quarter
  • Though net profits were 13 times higher on a low base, JLR disappointed on its global sales numbers
  • JLR contributes over 85% of Tata Motors top-line and that segment grew at just about 3.5% putting pressure on TAMO
Sterlite plans to invest $10 billion in the Indian power business
  • Sterlite is buying out the stake held by Standard Chartered PE Fund in its transmission business
  • Indian government is now permitting private players into the lucrative T&D business too, apart from power generation
Insurers raise doubts about the NHP numbers in the Budget
  • Insurers estimate that the premium assumption should be much higher for the National Health Policy (NHP)
  • The largest welfare measure intends to cover 10 crore families in India with a medical cover of Rs.5 lakhs per family
Coal India reported 4% rise in profits at Rs.3005 crore for the Dec quarter
  • This thrust to higher profits largely came from better control over the operating expenses of the company
  • This was largely because the excise duty stood abolished after the shift to the Goods & Service Tax model
SEBI looking into regulatory lapses by Singh brothers in Fortis case
  • This follows media reports that the Singh Brothers had taken $78 million (Rs.500 crore) out of the company sans approval
  • The funds transfer had happened through Fortis Healthcare investing the money in group companies of Singh Brothers
SEBI Chief assured of rules on crypto currencies coming soon
  • The rules for crypto currencies has become more important after the FM budget announcement
  • Crypto Currencies are based on block chain technology and can actually undermine monetary policy
Exchanges agree to ban globally listed domestic index futures
  • NSE will be taking the lead by de-licensing Nifty futures trading on the SGX, with a 6 month notice period
  • The government has expressed concerns over the off-shoring of Indian market volumes to other markets
SBI posts a surprise loss of Rs.2416 crore for the Dec quarter
  • This sharp loss was due to worsening NPA situation and a sharp fall in treasury income
  • There was a bad loan divergence of Rs.23,000 crore largely due to the integration of subsidiaries of SBI
Israel launched attacks on Syrian and Iranian positions
  • This escalation of tensions came after Iranian drones had allegedly encroached into Israeli airspace
  • Iran funding separatist groups in their struggle against the state of Israel and that adds to West Asian tensions