NIFTY BOUNCES BUT LACKS CONVICTION

  • The Nifty has bounced back sharply to the 10,400 mark but the conviction is still lacking in the markets. The overhang of the banking fiascos and the potential trade wars between the US and China will influence the markets.
  • One can now expect quick action from the government on the two vulnerable private banks and recapitalization of PSU banks. It could be the time to actually start picking select PSU banks like SBI, BOB and PNB at current levels.
  • FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs.(-1301) crores while DFIs bought Rs.359 crore on Monday. The higher figure for FPI gross figures includes the block deal on ICICI Bank between Merrill Lynch and Ballie Gifford.
  • There has been a virtually sharp bounce across the US, NASDAQ, European and Asian markets. However, one has to trade with caution as the risks surrounding trade wars and Fed rate hikes are still not behind.
  • After the sharp bounce in metals and select private banks like ICICI Bank and Axis, the situation is precise to buy put options on both sectors. The intensifying trade wear is likely to hit metals and banking vulnerability may peak this week.
  • With the stock of Zee Entertainment correcting from higher levels, the stock looks eminently poised to benefit from the positive turnaround in media performance. One can look forward to a 15-18% upside potential in Zee…
  • We suggest caution on metals and on downstream oil like Tata Steel, Hindalco, BPCL and HPCL. Trade wars and higher crude prices could queer the pitch for both these sets of companies.
  • While Zee may still be a good buy at this point of time, we like FMCGs as a de-risked play on the consumption space.