- While the opposition may have very little chance in a trust vote, the focus may be more on the debate ahead of the trust vote. The opposition will look to corner the government on economic issues like jobs, farm distress and the deficit.
- The rupee cracked beyond the 69/$ mark as the Fed outlook painted a rosy picture of US growth. Dollar strength is not great news as it led to sustained dollar buying by banks and importers leading to pressure on the INR.
- FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs.(-316) crores while DFIs bought Rs.471 crore on Thursday. With the US giving a rosy economic picture, the focus shifts on how the RBI manages the rupee. The Rs.70/$ mark could be critical.
- Global markets have been mixed as they still digest the implications of the US-China trade spat and the EU order against Google. SGX Nifty is flat but it could be driven by the direction of the trust vote on Friday.
- We reiterate our call on Titan as the best play on the consumer play in India. The stock should also get a heads-up from the GST which is beginning to gradually shift the business of jewellery more into the organized space.
- Oil downstream companies like HPCL, BPCL and IOC continue to be very good bets at these prices with oil prices plateauing out. ONGC could be a good short term play but purely from a trading perspective.
- We expect the Trust Vote to largely uneventful, sans the noise. This may be a good opportunity to start accumulate some quality mid caps at current levels. We suggest picking up RBL, Hindalco and Aditya Birla Capital at current levels.
- Rupee may be the key point to watch out for. If the RBI does not intervene to defend the rupee today, we could see a rapid move towards the 70/$ mark.
