Weekly Capsule (Oct 14 – Oct 18) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
British Parliament postpones vote on the crucial BREXIT deal
  • In a move to delay the BREXIT by another 3 months, the UK House of Commons opted to postpone the vote
  • This would mean that the October 31 deadline may be hard to meet and that would give more time for a fresh deal
HDFC Bank continues to flatter with a 27% growth in profits in Q2
  • This growth in net profits comes on top of a 15% growth in net interest income in the midst of tough conditions
  • However, provisions for contingencies were sharply up by 48% YOY although the NPAs are still well in control
Commodity market volumes dry up by 60% over the last 6 years
  • This compression in volume has been a direct outcome of the imposition of commodity transaction tax (CTT) in 2013
  • Unlike the equity F&O market, the commodity speculative volumes have been seriously hampered by the tax
RIL announced record profits even as market cap scaled Rs.9 trillion
  • The profit growth was largely driven by retail and digital with petchem and refining lagging in profit growth
  • Weak oil prices and lower gross refining margins (GRMs) took its toll on the growth of the core cash cows of RIL
SEBI tightens norms for resignation of auditors of companies
  • This was necessitated after a series of company stock prices got beaten down post the auditor resignations
  • Now auditors will have to justify their resignations in a short period and could become another face-off with ICAI
Indian Railways unhappy with the under pricing of IRCTC IPO
  • IRCTC price doubled on the day of listing, leaving a lot of investors thanking the conservative pricing
  • Indian Railways, which administratively controls IRCTC, has been unhappy with the deliberate under pricing of the IPO
RBI refuses provisioning relief to banks on the DHFL loans issue
  • DHFL has outstanding debt of Rs.1 trillion of which nearly 50% is owed by DHFL to banks
  • With the latest RBI clarification, all banks exposed to DHFL will have to provide 15% of their loans to DHFL in the Dec quarter
India’s forex reserves touch a record $440 billion in October 2019
  • Forex reserves saw an accretion of nearly $1.9 billion during the week assisted by strong FPI flows
  • With the RBI not required to intervene to support the rupee, the flows are directly adding to the forex chest
Monetary Policy Committed focuses entirely on reviving growth
  • There was almost a consensus among MPC members to keep lowering rates till the time GDP growth picked up
  • However, the challenge could be that the repo rates are already at the lowest level since 2002 leaving limited room
Aluminium stocks take a hit on weak forecast by US based ALCOA
  • Alcoa painted a bleak picture of aluminium demand and actually is selling off its aluminium assets
  • This had a negative impact on the price performance of companies like Vedanta and Hindalco
Zee Entertainment profits misses estimates for second quarter
  • The miss was due to a Rs.171 crore write off that the company had to take due to an ICD outstanding
  • This could raise a bigger corporate governance issue as company profits are being hit by group transactions
Maharashtra and Haryana go to assembly polls on 21st October
  • In the key state of Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine is taking on the combination of Congress and NCP
  • Exit polls will be allowed on 21st evening while the actual counting will be on the 24th of October
Jio widens subscriber gap over Bharti and Vodafone Idea
  • Jio was the only telecom company to gain subscribers even as Bharti and Vodafone lost customers during the quarter
  • In fact, Vodafone Idea is estimated to have lost close to 5 million active subscribers during this period
Nifty and Sensex gained for the sixth consecutive day on Friday
  • The rally was driven by a combination of weak oil prices and hopes of a BREXIT resolution at the earliest
  • There was also consistent short covering across rate sensitive sectors ahead of an expected Diwali bull market rally
FMCG companies see the worst rural growth in the last seven years
  • Rural growth in demand has changed from twice the urban growth to half of urban growth in last 2 years
  • This weakness is evident in falling rural inflation and is an outcome of agri distress and erratic monsoons this year
Mutual funds now hold 21% exposure to the private banking space
  • This is almost at par with the weightage of these private banks in the BSE 200 index
  • Over the last one year, the exposure to private banks has gone up by 400 bps as there is a clear flight to quality
MAT credit of Rs.75,000 crore could be the overhang for tax shift
  • This has become a major issue after CBDT refused carry forward of MAT credit for companies shifting to lower tax
  • With huge MAT credits still to be availed, this would delay the process of shifting to the new tax formula
Government wants to impose GST on brand usage by group companies
  • The argument is that when group companies use a common brand, there is a service which is not being taxed
  • However, the GST Council also foresees that any such measure will result in a plethora of litigations in courts
Indian trade deficit for September  falls to a low of $10.86 billion
  • The exports fell by 6.5% but imports fell much sharper by 13.5% leading to compression of trade deficit
  • However, this is indicative of slowdown in India’s trade machinery but that has also been the trend globally
SBI sees accelerating consumer loans but decelerating business loans
  • According to SBI, there was a clear slowdown in commercial credit across micro, SME and industrial enterprises
  • With PSU banks going slow, most private banks are still sticking to the much easier business of consumer lending
IMF downgrades India GDP growth to 6.1% for 2019
  • This is broadly in line with the growth downgrades by the RBI and later by the other rating agencies
  • Global growth has also been lowered to 3% with trade war losses estimated at close to $800 billion