TRIGGERS WEEKLY (JAN 27 – JAN 31) – PREPARING FOR NEXT WEEK

Trigger for the Week How will it impact?
Insurance companies to react negatively to budget changes
  • LIC listing and making Section 80C investments optional likely to hit demand for life and health protection
No recapitalization allocation negative for PSU banks
  • Budget puts halt to bank recap after allocation of Rs.3.5 trillion. Negative for PSU banks, especially weaker ones
Higher fiscal deficit target at 3.8% likely to hit bond yields
  • This is broadly expected to be negative for most rate sensitives like banks, NBFCs and real estate
Tax tweaks likely to encourage more spending over  saving
  • Shift to new taxation system positive for FMCG and consumer durable stocks due to spending power
RBI policy during the week likely to be keenly watched
  • With inflation at 7.35%, rate cuts almost look unlikely so impact of the policy would be largely marginal
Markets may watch out for the $174 billion China stimulus
  • Apart from negating the impact of Corona virus pandemic, this will be infusing liquidity in markets
Big  allocations to water and infra positive for select stocks
  • Stocks like L&T and IRB could get big contracts while VA Tech Wabag could benefit from water treatment deals
Assemble in India approach positive for electronics
  • This could open the doors for big outsourcing contracts and benefit stocks like Redington and Dixon Tech
Plan for data centre parks likely to be positive for IT companies
  • Stocks like HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra and Wipro could benefit due to their strong exposure to both sides
Key earnings likely to keep the markets interested
  • Some of the major earnings expected this week are Titan, Bharti, Cipla, Lupin, M&M and Sun Pharma
Oil  companies to invest Rs.1 trillion in exploration and refining
  • This is likely to trigger fresh interest in oil companies in the next few weeks
Weak oil will keep the rupee  strong in the coming week
  • With Brent crude falling to $56/bbl, FMCG stocks to benefit and rupee to remain steady on import comfort
Manufacturing PMI hits 8-year  high of 55.3 for January 2020
  • This was driven by higher orders and output and is likely positive for most manufacturing stocks
ITC could be the stock to watch on the downside; being a heavyweight
  • Budget worries on duties dampened the stock by nearly 15% in two days on future earnings worries