Weekly Capsule (Feb 07 – Feb 11) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
   
Ø  Monetary policy announced by the RBI keeps repo rates unchanged at 4% Ø  The status quo decision may have been determined by the need to observe the US Fed action before taking a view

Ø  Contrary to expectations of a likely hike, even the reverse repo rates were kept static at 3.35% amidst rising inflation

 

Ø  RBI maintained the accommodative stance of the monetary policy Ø  With growth still staging a nascent recovery, the RBI opted to keep the monetary stance accommodative as long as needed

Ø  As in previous policies, 5 of the MPC members voted for this proposal with J R Varma being the sole dissenting voice

 

Ø  FY23 inflation downsized to 4.5% and FY23 GDP growth estimated at 7.8% Ø  The GDP estimates have been adjusted for the possible impact of the Omicron virus, especially on contact intensive sectors

Ø  The surprising part was RBI lowering the inflation, especially considering that oil prices had rallied 25% in last 2 months

 

Ø  Government cancels the Rs.20,000 crore bond auctions on 11th February Ø  That was necessitated by a sharp spike in bond yields, which rallied from 6.65% to 6.93% post the Union Budget 2022

Ø  That spike in yields happened after the Budget announced a 25% hike in total borrowings in FY23 at Rs.14.95 trillion

 

Ø  IIP growth for Dec-21 comes in sharply lower at 0.44% on Omicron effect Ø  The big hit was on manufacturing after the disruption of manufacturing in December due to the Omicron variant

Ø  This data, which was announced after the credit policy, also ratifies the stance of the RBI to keep focus on growth revival

 

Ø  Ruchi Soya to launch its Rs.4,300 crore public issue in last week of Feb-22 Ø  The issue is likely to be structured as a follow-on public offer or FPO, since Ruchi Soya is already a listed company

Ø  It may be recollected that Ruchi Soya was bought by the Patanjali group as part of the NCLT liquidation process

 

Ø  Adani Wilmar has a stellar post listing performance on the stock exchange Ø  Adani Wilmar listed at Rs.227, against issue price of Rs.230, but by weekend had rallied almost by 80% over listing price

Ø  With this rally, the market cap of Adani Wilmar crossed the Rs.50,000 crore mark, the seventh Adani group stock to list

 

Ø  US retail inflation for Jan-22 comes in at a 40-year high level of 7.5% Ø  This 40-year high inflation is likely to trigger a faster increase in the pace of rate hikes by the US Fed in this year

Ø  Goldman Sachs has now raised its estimate for number of rate hikes in year 2022 at 7 hikes of about 200 bps overall

 

Ø  N Chandrasekharan appointed as the chairman of Tata Sons for 5 more years Ø  Under the leadership of Chandra, the Tata group saw a big focus on shareholder value and market cap of the group

Ø  Another 5 year term for Chandra also means that the digital initiatives will remain the focus of Tata group in the future

 

Ø  US 10-year bond yields closes in on 2% after a long time over inflation fears Ø  The bond yields spiked after inflation for Jan-22 came in at a 40-year high level of 7.5% on supply chain constraints

Ø  This has substantially increased the likelihood of a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed when it meets next in March 2022

   
Ø  India’s mutual fund AUM crossed Rs38 trillion in the month of Jan-22 Ø  During the month of Jan-22, there were inflows across debt funds, equity funds, hybrid funds and passive fund categories

Ø  The highlight of the month was the SIP flows at record Rs.11,517 crore and SIP folios crossing 5 crore accounts

 

Ø  LIC IPO likely to be a complete offer for sale with no fresh issue component Ø  With overall valuations of $200 billion, the government just needs to sell 5% equity to raise the balance Rs.65,000 crore

Ø  Even a truncated IPO issue by the LIC would be 3.5 times as large as the current record IPO size held by Paytm

 

Ø  Cloud Nine files DRHP with SEBI for its proposed Rs.1,200 crore IPO Ø  The IPO is likely to a combination of Rs.300 crore of fresh issue and Rs.900 crore OFS by promoters and early shareholders

Ø  The fresh issue component will be predominantly used for debt reduction and organic expansion of the business

 

Ø  Piramal Enterprises reports 11% growth in profits at Rs.888 crore for Q3 Ø  With sales growth of 20.4%, PEL saw solid traction across both its financial services and its pharmaceuticals vertical

Ø  The company has affirmed that the acquisition of DHFL during the previous year had been value accretive for Piramal group

 

Ø  Government bans the import of drones to encourage domestic manufacturing Ø  This ban on drones will apply to the CKD, SKD and CBU form, but excludes imports for defence, security and R&D

Ø  With a PLI allocation of Rs.120 crore to drones, government wants to encourage domestic drones for general purposes

 

Ø  STT collections surge to Rs.19,200 crore for the fiscal year 2021-22 till date Ø  With STT collections 70% higher than FY22, even the revised estimate of STT of Rs.20,000 crore will be taken out in FY22

Ø  The surge in FY22 can be largely attributed to a massive growth in retail participation in the Indian equity markets

 

Ø  Bharti Airtel expects ARPUs to grow to Rs.200 per customer per month Ø  That is nearly 23% higher than the current elevated level of ARPUs at around Rs.163 reported in the Dec-21 quarter

Ø  Apart from tariff hikes, Bharti has also focused more on the high value customers with scope to expand the ROI

 

Ø  Blackrock raises red flags on auditor objections to SpiceJet Accounts Ø  Blackrock refused to approve the accounts and also rejected the re-appointment of Shivani Singh to the board

Ø  Blackrock, the world’s largest fund manager, signifies the growing activism that global fund managers are showing

 

Ø  Vedanta drops plans to restructure its group along business verticals Ø  The decision to separate steel, aluminium and oil and list them as separate entities has been shelved for the time being

Ø  However, it is not clear if the plan to merge the UK based parent with Vedanta India is still on or has also been shelved

 

Ø  Nalco announces 3-fold increase in net profits for the Dec-21 quarter Ø  This was on the back of a 58% boost in top line sales helped by higher volumes as well as robust aluminium prices in Q3

Ø  This has been the trend with most aluminium companies with the likes of Hindalco also reporting stellar numbers

 

Ø  RBI may allow NBFCs to issue credit cards on a standalone basis Ø  This is a clear shift from the current situation when NBFCs can only issue credit cards that are co-branded with banks

Ø  With rising Fintech culture, RBI sees merit in allowing NBFCs to have options commensurate with their 30% credit share