For the third time in succession, the proposed BREXIT deal was rejected by the British Parliament. Theresa May counted on a mix of Conservatives, North Irish party and Labor dissidents to help the BREXIT deal sail through. In fact, Theresa May had even committed to resigning from the chair if the deal was passed. Despite all the efforts, the anti-BREXIT deal vote was quite decisive. But first, let us look at this BREXIT imbroglio a tad deeper.
BREXIT deal brouhaha
The BREXIT deal was basically an agreement between the UK and the EU to ensure that Britain’s exit from the EU was orderly rather than chaotic. In fact, the Bank of England has projected that a sudden BREXIT could compress the GDP of Britain by nearly 7% in the short to medium term. That would be a lot of chaos and disruption to handle. As far as the British people are concerned, they have a simple point; we voted to exit the EU, the deal is your problem! When the referendum in 2016 clearly voted for Britain to exit the EU, the belief was that the 3-year time frame would give the UK enough time to work out an orderly exit. However, there has been little progress on negotiations in the last 3 years. UK expects unrealistic concessions, which the EU is unwilling to cede. For the people of Britain, BREXIT is a must because the costs in terms of membership of the EU and the refugee costs were just too prohibitive.
What is the way out now?
Broadly, there are 3 options in front of Britain at this point in time. Firstly, Theresa May will have to resign and Britain may call for a fresh election. The onus will then be on the new government to deal with the BREXIT mandate. Secondly, another option would be to initiate BREXIT and deal with the consequences as they come. The UK had taken a similar stand in 1992 when it was forced out of the common currency. But that was a different scenario with lesser global linkages. It may be a blind date for the government. Lastly, the UK may want to give a silent burial to the idea of BREXIT and let the status quo continue. This may be against the referendum mandate but then you can argue that the modus operandi would have been too complicated and too painful.
Is the BREXIT idea over?
Without sounding too prophetic, it does look like it may best suit everyone’s interests to give the idea of BREXIT a silent burial for now. UK can have Track-2 negotiations with the EU on the costs and the issue of absorbing refugees into its fold. These are not really complicated issues. UK and EU realize that it is in their larger common interest to stay integrated and prevent other nations from benefiting from the stand-off. BREXIT may get a quiet burial, but who will bell the cat?
