GLOBAL OVERHANG LIKELY ON NIFTY

  • With the US, France and UK launching attacks on Syria, the situation becomes really delicate in West Asia. Markets could be under pressure on Russian retaliation pressure as well as a rise in crude oil prices.
  • Infosys disappointed with a 300 basis points downgrade of its operating margins due to heavy investments in the digital business. The 7.5% correction in Infosys ADRs on Friday will rub off on Indian prices on Monday.
  • FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs.(-400) crores while DFIs bought Rs.306 crore on Friday. With the US carrying out attacks on Syria over the weekend, FPIs may consider Indian stocks vulnerable to higher oil prices.
  • US markets did correct on Friday but Asian markets are yet to trade post the attacks. The SGX Nifty is already 0.50% down and the pressure is likely to sustain depending on the reaction of Asian markets on Monday.
  • We expect oil prices to move up by another $4-5 immediately in the Brent market. This is not great news for oil downstream with more subsidy burden coming their way. We stay short on HPCL, BPCL and even on IOCL.
  • Entire technology space is likely to feel the heat of lower margin guided by Infosys. Expect most of the IT stocks to be under pressure. After growth tapering, now expect pressure on margins. Stay negative on IT stocks at these levels.
  • With the global uncertainty rising, gold may be a good place to park funds for the short to medium term. Trader and investors can look at allocating to Gold ETFs now as the best bet against the market volatility.
  • Monday could be a tricky day of trade. With the West Asia pressures and oil, markets could be choppy. Use bounces to sell the market!