Impact Analysis For Union Budget 2018 (Jan 29 – Feb 02)

                 Budget Announcement                                         Budget Impact
Fiscal Deficit for 2017-18 pegged at 3.5% of GDP versus 3.2% target
  • The 30 bps spill over is lower than anticipated and even the 2018-19 fiscal deficit is pegged at just 3.2%
  • However, higher fiscal deficit indicates more borrowings and that will push up the bond yields in the market
Infrastructure outlay fixed at Rs.5.97 lakh crore for the full year
  • India needs close to $800 billion to bring its infrastructure to South East Asian standards
  • Infrastructure spending has a multiplier effect on growth and is also a GDP booster
The budget has allocated Rs.148,000 core to the Indian Railways
  • The focus of the railway spending will be largely on capital renewals and on safety measures
  • The government is also envisaging dedicated rail freight corridors in the mineral rich sector
Big focus on improving the quality of life in the rural areas
  • The budget promises 4 crore fresh electricity connections and another 8 crore cooking gas connections
  • The allocation to rural livelihood as an alternate to farming has been set at Rs.14.34 lakh crore
Farmers to get assured MSP at 1.5 times the cost of production
  • This will be a boon for Indian farmers as they have been getting paltry market prices on their Kharif crop
  • However, implementation could be the big challenge as MSP is very hard to enforce in practice
The budget to connect 470 APMCs as part of the National Agri Market
  • The eNAM will enable farmers to get a much better price without relying on brokers at the mandis
  • Eventually, this will enable farmers to hedge their price risk through the use of futures markets
The Budget envisages the world’s largest National Healthcare Plan
  • Over 10 crore families are expected to be covered up to Rs.5 lakh per family under this scheme
  • However, the allocation of Rs.2000 crore appears to be quite small considering the magnitude of the project
Disinvestment target for fiscal 2018-19 set at Rs.80,000 crore
  • A total of 24 CPSEs will be divested and will be a mix of minority stake sale and strategic sales
  • In the fiscal 2017-18, the government is expected to exceed the divestment target by 35%, which is a good portent
Cuts corporate taxes for firms up to turnover of Rs.250 crore to 25%
  • This will leave out most of the mid-sized and large companies in the Indian market which will not qualify
  • There are currently 800 listed companies which have a turnover of less than Rs.250 crore
Imports to get costlier via the imposition of 10% surcharge
  • The social welfare surcharge will be a shift wherein the duties on imports are being actually increased
  • The Budget has focused on increasing the contribution of customs duty in the indirect tax kitty
Customs duties on a large number of non-essential items increased
  • This could make a lot of items like mobile phones, LCD TVs, smart watches and footwear more expensive
  • The customs hike has been kept out of inputs products and focused more on non-essential consumer items
Senior citizens to benefit from the increase in interest tax limit
  • The limit for tax on interest on deposits has been raised from Rs.10,000 per annum to Rs.50,000 per annum
  • In addition, the TDS also will not be deducted up to this level which makes the process a lot simpler
Medical insurance limits for senior citizens also has been raised
  • The Section 80D limit for senior citizens has been raised from Rs.30,000 to Rs.50,000
  • This is a tax incentive for tax payers to get their parents brought under the ambit of medical insurance
Income tax rates have been kept static but cess is up from 3% to 4%
  • This will be applicable across the board for all income levels and will be uniformly spread across
  • The cess hike is being compensated by standard deduction of Rs.40,000 but medical and transport allowance go away
Budget announces introduction of tax on LTCG on equities and equity MFs
  • Only annual LTCG above Rs.1 lakh will be taxed at the rate of 10% on the excess amount
  • However there is indexation benefit and investors can sell until March 31st without attracting capital gains tax
Equity mutual funds to attract dividend distribution tax at 10%
  • This becomes a kind of double taxation as DDT is already applied in case of equities
  • This is likely to increase the preference for growth funds over dividend options
FM clarifies that crypto currencies are not legal tender
  • This is a caution to the HNIs investing in Bitcoins to be prepared for punitive taxation on these products
  • However, the government has expressed its intent to use the Blockchain technology for government records
The Budget has given a big focus on education with Rs.1 trillion outlay
  • The budget looks to spread education across villages through the use of technology
  • This lateral approach under the Eklavya program will help spread education much faster
Budget has also proposed an Aadhar like digital id for all businesses
  • This will again be extremely useful in tracking transactions and preventing leakage of taxes
  • This will also aid the process of digitization as companies will also be able to use Aadhar as a valid id
Government to use InvITs for monetizing assets of CPSEs
  • This will be a boost for the InvIT concept which has huge applications in infrastructure projects
  • The government will be using InvITs to conduct strategic sale by using the InvIT route
Budget extends Kisan Credit Cards to fisheries and dairy farming
  • This puts these dairy and aqua farmers at par with the farmers of Kharif and Rabi crops
  • While agriculture has been lagging, dairy and fisheries have been growing at a rapid pace of nearly 10%