MACRO DATA COULD BE AN OVERHANG FOR NIFTY

  • Indices are likely to come under pressure on Thursday as the weekly options expiry combined with the weak macro data could take its toll. Inflation came in higher at 7.59% while IIP growth came in lower at (-0.30%).
  • Rate sensitive stocks like banks and NBFCs could take a hit on Thursday as the sharply higher inflation rate virtually rules out any scope for rate cuts in the next two policy statements in April and June, despite low growth.
  • FPIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs.49 crore while DFIs bought Rs.339 crore on Wednesday. The interesting thing to observe will be whether the FPI buying in debt continues after the inflation has been scaled up once again.
  • US NASDAQ continued to be positive even as Europe was flat. Most Asian markets were under pressure on Wednesday. The SGX Nifty is flat to negative in the opening but is likely to react to the weak inflation and growth numbers.
  • We continue to be cautious on IndusInd Bank and suggest again selling the stock at Rs.1277 with lower targets of Rs.1180 in one quarter. The stock is likely to take a hit on weak Q3 numbers and also the recent spike in inflation.
  • With the big boost to spending power of people in the budge and the sharp rise in rural spending commitment by the government, Dabur will be an obvious beneficiary. Buy Dabur at Rs.520 for targets of Rs.600 in three month frame.
  • With the weak results and the recent rejection of SPARC drug, Sun Pharma stock could come under pressure. You can look to sell the stock around Rs.420-422 for downside targets of Rs.390 on the stock in one quarter.
  • The markets are likely to react to weak IIP growth numbers and the spike in inflation for the month of January 2020.