After a long gap the Core Sector number for the month of November came in at a healthy 6.8%. Core sector represents the 8 infrastructure sectors including coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement, fertilizers and electricity. This number is important as it constitutes over 40% of the IIP number and hence becomes critical for GDP growth too. The big boost came from steel and cement which grew at 16.6% and 17.3% respectively. However, it needs to be remembered that last November was a weak month due to demonetization and hence sustainability needs to be evaluated.
Even as there was good news on the core sector front, there was some disconcerting news on the H1-B visa front, which happens to be staple diet for Indian IT companies for executing their projects in the US. According to the new proposed bill, the company will have to certify that the visa holder is not displacing an existing employee over the next 5-6 years. These were additional restrictions envisaged to prevent the alleged misuse of visas. There are already restrictions on entry salary and qualifications of the visa holder, but the certification will put the entire onus on the company.
Salil Parekh will take over as the new CEO of Infosys on January 02nd. He has a tough job ahead in terms of balancing the aspirations of the shareholders and the stringent demands of the promoter group. The situation worsened after Vishal Sikka stepped down and Nilekani had to be brought in to bring order. Salil Parekh has a formidable reputation of building businesses in companies like Ernst & Young and Cap Gemini. While Murthy appears to be happy with the choice of Parekh, it will have to be seen how the relationship evolves over time. The digital challenge on the business front remains!
The DOT is likely to issue notices to nearly 5 telecom companies to recover close to Rs.2578 crore. This comes after the CAG had red-flagged the under-reporting of revenues by Indian telecom companies. Notices have already been issued to Tata Teleservices, Reliance Jio and Telenor. According to the CAG, these companies had understated revenues by nearly Rs.14,800 crore resulting in a loss to the exchequer to the extent of Rs.2578 crore. However, most of the deductions considered by the CAG for computing the revised revenues are actually sub judice currently.
It was a month of attractive sales numbers posted by auto companies. Again, the situation could be partially explained by the weak base last year and also by the fact that companies have been aggressive in pushing sales numbers through major discounts and schemes. While Eicher sales for December surged by 17%, TVS Motors actually grew by 39%. Both Maruti and Escorts saw robust sales in the domestic market but did see their global sales slumping due to weak demand globally. Interestingly, Maruti showed good growth in the entry segment but the mid-size segment actually saw negative sales. The last 1 year has been quite tumultuous for auto companies with demonetization, followed by the ban on sales of BS-3 vehicles and later the implementation of GST. A commendable show nevertheless!
PNB may turn out to the big beneficiary of the IBC proceedings. According to the CEO of PNB, based on the bids that PNB is receiving for the stressed assets of companies, it is apparent that the haircuts may not be too high. The new Insolvency Code has sent out a strong message that if you do not repay your loans quickly then you run the risk of liquidation. Indian banks (predominantly PSU banks) are struggling with an overhang of $207 billion in stressed assets. The government will also infuse funds into these stressed banks through recapitalization bonds, but will be subject to asset quality and recovery.
