TRIGGERS WEEKLY (MAR 02 – MAR 06) – PREPARING FOR NEXT WEEK

Trigger for the Week How will it impact?
Coronavirus will continue to be the big story for the markets this week
  • After most global markets tanked last week, the virus story will need some positive cues from China
Nifty lost close to 7% during the week with higher VIX
  • With little buying interest markets may, at best, remain tepid to flat during the coming week
SBI Cards IPO opens on March 02 and that will be a key factor
  • With strong demand from anchor investors, SBI Cards is expected to garner solid response from all segments
Keep an eye on the next steps taken by Vodafone Idea on AGR issue
  • With Bharti Airtel having paid Rs.18,004 crore to the DOT, the onus will be on Vodafone to move fast on AGR
Tata Motors and other auto stocks will continue to face pressure
  • Auto stocks are hit by the virus on the demand side and also in terms of input costs from China
Crude oil could benefit India but also hint at a slowdown
  • With Brent getting close to $50/bbl, India should benefit from lower trade deficit. Global GDP to be lower.
Look for FII selling after nearly Rs.12,000 crore sold in the week
  • The previous week was risk off with FIIs selling in equity and in debt in favour of safer havens
Rupee weakening beyond 72 could be a major issue for the marketq
  • RBI has not shown much interest in intervening and rupee weakness may discourage FIIs further
GDP growth at 4.7% and core sector growth at 2.2% to remain in focus
  • GDP showed a small bounce but manufacturing remains tepid and that could be negative for capital goods
Agricultural growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2019-20 could be a boost
  • Agri related stocks could benefit from this rural boost as could FMCG stocks catering to rural areas
Watch out for the PMI Manufacture and Services numbers this week
  • IF PMI can repeat the stellar performance of January, it will be good news for manufacturing sector
Metal stocks to be in limelight after the sharp correction last week
  • Most metal stocks like Hindalco, Vedanta took a major hit on expectations of weak Chinese demand
Keenly watch for Dividend plays ahead of March year end
  • Major PSUs with adequate cash are expected to deliver huge dividends to investors ahead of April deadline
Outcome of OPEC meeting on oil supply cuts to be key
  • It remains to be seen if the OPEC and Russia actually get into deep supply cuts to support oil prices