Weekly Capsule (Dec 02 – Dec 06) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
RBI maintains status quo on repo rates at existing level of 5.15%
  • This retains the reverse repo rate at 4.90% and the MSF and bank rate at 5.40%
  • This was contrary to street expectations which had factored in a rate cut of at least 25 basis points
RBI highlights rising inflation as the key risk for a rate cut
  • CPI inflation had touched a high level of 4.6% with food inflation touching a 39-month high of 6.9%
  • MPC also expressed the concern that with the OPEC raising its oil supply cuts, fuel inflation could trend higher
RBI sets full year GDP growth target at a level of 5%
  • This assumes an average GDP growth of just about 5.25% in the second half of the current fiscal
  • The downward revision in GDP was largely driven by HF indicators like IIP and core sector dipping into negative
RBI raises the P2P lending overall limit per lender to Rs.50 lakhs
  • This marks a five-fold increase in the overall lending from the current level of just Rs.10 lakhs
  • However, the RBI has retained its current limit per borrower with a view to diversifying the P2P lending portfolio
There was total unanimity among the MPC  members to hold rates
  • All six members agreed to hold rates and there was also total consensus on keeping the stance as accommodative
  • After a break of the last few policies, the MPC also included inflation as a key criterion apart from boosting growth
Forex reserves crosses $450 billion for the first time in Indian history
  • The reserves have shot up sharply in the last one year after dipping to below $400 billion in late 2018
  • The sharp rise in forex reserves was due to limited RBI intervention required in the forex markets
Moody’s downgrades Yes Bank’s outlook to negative during the week
  • Moody’s has raised some serious concerns over the ability of Yes Bank to raise the required equity capital
  • Yes Bank core capital ratio has fallen to 8.7%, marginally above the statutory requirement of 8%
Auto component turnover falls by 10% in the April-September period
  • Auto components have borne the brunt of the slowdown in the auto industry in the form of job losses
  • Apart from auto production cuts, the shift to BS-VI norms has also put pressure on the auto components industry
NEFT system will be made available by RBI on all days of the week
  • The online money transfer system will also permit transfers on all holidays from December 16th
  • NEFT is an economical yet efficient mode of transferring funds to another bank account electronically
Government hints at a likely rate hike in GST slabs across the board
  • The GST 5% slab is likely to be moved to 10% while the GST 12% slab is expected to be moved up to 18%
  • While timelines are not yet set, this has become inevitable due to the plummeting GST revenues in last two years
Japan puts forth a $240 billion economic stimulus plan
  • According to Shinzo Abe, this booster will be used to fight the slowdown triggered by the ongoing trade war
  • Japan’s action may trigger similar action from other central banks too as fiscal and monetary measures could be mixed
OPEC likely to cut supplies of crude further in tandem with Russia
  • OPEC plus Russia are likely to increase the supply cut from 1.2 million bpd to 1.6 million bpd or more
  • This is likely to give a floor support for oil prices and could also indirectly help Saudi Aramco IPO list at attractive levels
SAT refuses to grant any relief to Bajaj Finance and other lenders to Karvy
  • Bajaj Finance had approached SAT after SEBI had asked NSDL to annul all share pledges by Karvy and returned shares
  • While the investors have got their shares back, sellers are yet to realize the proceeds of their sale from Karvy
Goldman Sachs makes a strong case for diversifying portfolios with gold
  • Gold prices have fallen nearly 6% in the recent past after trade deal hopes boost markets across the board
  • However, Goldman has suggested that investors must use this opportunity to increase gold holdings as a hedge
Asset Reconstruction Companies to take auction route to acquire NPAs
  • According to RBI guidelines, all bank NPAs will now only have to be sold through auction and not privately placed
  • With Rs.9.5 trillion of NPAs still in the system, this could ensure a more transparent method of pricing NPAs
SEBI asks SBI, BOB and LIC to pare stake in UTI AMC to below 10%
  • This is mandatory as per the extant regulations but SEBI has given them time till end of 2020 to pare the stake
  • UTI AMC has been eyeing the IPO market and could use this route to give an exit to institutions and also list shares
Saudi Aramco shares  to list and start trading on December 11th
  • The IPO had valued Aramco at $1.71 trillion and was the largest IPO with the richest valuation
  • Aramco has been trying to push for higher crude price so as to get Aramco a valuation of closer to $2 trillion on listing
Kumaramangalam  Birla hints at closure of Vodafone Idea over AGR issue
  • Birla has hinted that in the absence of any relief from the government, the company may have to be wound up
  • Vodafone Idea needs to pay Rs.30,000 crore to DOT for AGR charges apart from spectrum usage fees
Bharti Airtel creates $4 billion war chest to pay off the AGR dues
  • Bharti Airtel has raised bonds worth $4 billion to pay off its dues under Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) issue
  • Bharti Airtel had already written off this sum in its second quarter results posting a record loss of Rs.27,000 crore
IL&FS reports net loss of Rs.22,572 crore for fiscal 2018-19
  • This only reflects part of the losses from depletion in its portfolio and the full figure may be much larger
  • Total revenues for the year more than halved while the total assets of the company were down by 83%
Government may dilute FDI regulations to facilitate sale  of Air India
  • Current FDI regulations do not permit foreign ownership in Indian airlines in excess of 49%
  • In the case of Air India, a one-off relaxation may be required to make the deal sweet for the global airlines