Weekly Capsule (Dec 16 – Dec 20) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
Fitch downsizes India’s full year GDP for fiscal 2019-20 to just 4.6%
  • This downsizing comes after Moody’s had pegged India’s full year GDP at 4.9% and the RBI had pegged at 5%
  • Fitch sees pressure on the GDP growth emanating from weak consumption and tepid private investment demand
Diesel rates hiked for third successive  day; petrol prices stay constant
  • The serial hike in diesel prices has been necessitated due to a sharp spike in global crude oil prices in the Brent market
  • The only challenge is that diesel prices have strong levels of externalities in India and can be clearly inflationary
RBI may resort to bond yield twisting to bring down bond yields
  • Bond yield twisting was necessitated after 10-year bond yields spiked sharply on the back of status quo on repo rates
  • In bond yield twisting, the RBI will sell bonds at the short end and purchase bonds at the long end of the yield curve
UTI AMC has filed DRHP for a Rs.3000 crore offer for sale in the IPO market
  • UTI AMC’s offer for sale will include sale of shares by BOB, PNB, SBI, LIC and its foreign promoter, T Rowe Price
  • There is a beeline of AMCs waiting to hit the IPO market after HDFC AMC and Nippon AMC got fancy valuations
Pre budget meetings with the FM focus on SMEs, NBFCs and consumption
  • There have been demands to cut personal taxes and also corporate taxes to 15% to boost spending
  • There have also been demands for a rescue package for NFBCs, which could have a catalytic impact on lending
NCLAT order calls for Cyrus Mistry to be reinstated as chairman of Tata Sons
  • In a relief for Cyrus Mistry, NCLAT declared appointment of Chandra illegal and ordered reinstatement of Mistry
  • This order will only be effective after 4 weeks to give Tata Sons time to explore legal options, if any
NCLAT also rejected the decision by Tata Sons to turn private limited
  • The conversion to private limited company would have made it hard for Mistry family to sell their shares in Tata Sons
  • Now the ROC will have to pass an order to convert Tata Sons back into a public limited company as per NCLAT ruling
Nifty and Sensex scale to life time highs during the week
  • The sharp rally was driven by global cues as there was positive progress on the China trade deal and also on BREXIT
  • The MSCI revamp also meant that an additional flow of $2.5 billion would come into India; further boosting markets
Anand Mahindra to step down from the helm of Mahindra Group in April 2020
  • Anand Mahindra of the $20 billion conglomerate will assume charge as non-executive chairman of the overall group
  • Senior officials like Pawan Goenka, Rajesh Jejurikar, Anish Shah and V S Parthasarathy will share responsibilities
Government rules out any price cut in next round of spectrum auctions
  • The next round of spectrum auctions in April 2020 will fetch Rs.5 trillion payable over a period of 2 years
  • The success of the spectrum auctions will largely depend on the cash flow position of telecom companies next year
Gita Gopinath urges India to focus on medium term fiscal consolidation
  • Gita Gopinath of the IMF has asked India to keep fiscal discipline to ensure that sovereign ratings are not impacted
  • This warning came after India looked all set to breach its fiscal deficit limit this year on the back of weak revenue growth
Bharat Bond ETF got oversubscribed by nearly 1.7 times in its maiden issue
  • The first bond ETF in India got subscriptions to the tune of Rs.12,000 crore and they have a greenshoe option
  • The Bond ETF is a passive bond investment pegged to an underlying bond index (representing PSU debt)
IBC process helps  banks recover nearly Rs.160,000 crore in 3 years
  • IBC was introduced to help banks recover money from loans extended to stressed companies via a sale process
  • The IBC overall has been able to realize nearly twice the liquidation value of all these businesses put together
SAT asks SEBI to pass order on Axis Bank in Karvy case by 15th December
  • This pertains to the pledge of client shares done by Karvy to obtain loans from banks including Axis Bank
  • In the previous cases of Bajaj Finance and ICICI Bank, SEBI had rejected claims pertaining to revocation of transfers
Vedanta likely to evaluate making a bid for acquiring BPCL
  • Agarwal of Vedanta had already stated that they would be interested in acquiring a major stake in BPCL
  • Vedanta already has large exposures to aluminium, copper, zinc and crude and refining will be a logical extension
Jet Airways insolvency extended by 90 days on request from biddersq
  • The request was made by the sole potential bidder, Synergy Group as it needed more time to evaluate the offer
  • Jet had been grounded back in April and has not been flying since. Most of its planes have been impounded by lessors
Brent Crude continues to trade around the $66.50/bbl mark
  • Brent crude has been consistently elevated due to the OPEC setting supply cuts at 1.7 million bpd from 1.2 million bpd
  • Crude prices have also gone up due to hopes that the trade deal and BREXIT could be favorable for crude oil demand
MPC minutes on December 19th clearly focused on the inflation risk
  • Most MPC members felt inflation was temporary but saw logic in going slow on rate cuts till inflation stabilized
  • Even on the growth front, the consensus was to allow fiscal policy measures to play out on growth before further cuts
US House of Representatives approves Trump impeachment motion
  • However, the impeachment needs to also pass through the Senate; where Republicans have a majority
  • However, even if he is impeached by both houses, it does not mean that Trump would be removed from the presidency
GST Council meeting holds GST rates but hikes levy on lotteries
  • Contrary to popular belief, the GST Council stayed away from hiking GST rates as it would have been inflationary
  • Lotteries across India have been standardized at 28% GST and the hike was put to vote for the first time
Scrapping of IUC has been put off by one year to December 2020
  • The inter-connect user charges (IUC) entailed paying 6 paisa for every call that lands on the network
  • Bharti, due to its legacy network, has the highest IUC income and this is likely to continue for another year