Weekly Capsule for the week ended 24th November 2017

Major News Item Impact Analysis
   
Ø  The President signs ordinance to amend the Bankruptcy Bill Ø  The primary focus of the amendment will be to legally prevent the defaulters from taking control of the company

Ø  The amendment also seeks to overcome constraints pertaining to CCI approvals and open offers

 

Ø  Promoters likely to approach the courts against the promoter ban in IBC Ø  Many analysts are of the view that barring promoters may vastly reduce the chances of a stressed asset being sold

Ø  However, the argument of these promoter groups is unlikely to stand up to scrutiny in a court of law

 

Ø  Winter session of Parliament to commence on December 15th Ø  The winter session was postponed considering the upcoming Gujarat elections in early December

Ø  The ordinance signed by the President on the IBC will be taken up for approval but that is likely to be a formality

 

Ø  The race for the elections in Gujaratis graduallyheating up Ø  The battle for Gujarat could be much tighter than originally envisaged due to Hardik Patel supporting the Congress

Ø  The BJP has been in power in the state of Gujarat for more than 20 years and it will be seen as a referendum on 2019

 

Ø  Gold prices inched up after Fed members gave dovish signals Ø  The Fed minutes released hints at more members expressing serious concerns over inflation remaining at low levels

Ø  Inflation at around 2% is a key criterion for a rate hike and any delays in rate hikes will mean a weaker dollar

 

Ø  Infosys stock hits a 3-month highahead of the buyback date Ø  The Infosys buyback at a price of Rs.1150 commences on November 30th and there is buying interest in the stock

Ø  The buyback is at a steep premium to the market price and that could be an incentive to try and cash out

 

Ø  Government puts strict curbs on the exports of onions Ø  The government has imposed strict curbs on onion exports after the prices crossed Rs.70/kg

Ø  Onions have always been a politically sensitive commodity and the BJP will not want to take chances ahead of polls

 

Ø  Edelweiss plans to expand its retail credit book substantially Ø  In fact, Edelweiss expects its retail credit book to constitute over 50% of its overall book by the year 2020

Ø  Leading brokers like Edelweiss are already deriving a chunk of their revenues from fund-based businesses

 

Ø  FMCG companies passing on most of the GST cuts to end consumers Ø  In the last GST meet, the Council had aggressively cut rates on 75% of the products in the peak 28% bracket

Ø  This is likely to be positive for demand and is likely to benefit stocks like HUVR, ITC, Dabur and Marico

 

Ø  Government imposes price controls on Hepatitis and cancer drugs Ø  A total of 51 drugs for treating diseases like Hepatitis, Cancer and Haemophilia have come under price control

Ø  That is not great news for the already beleaguered pharma sector which is facing pressure in the US markets too

   
Ø  Airtel has expressed interest in buying a stake in RCOM Ø  This will be an extension to the telecom properties already acquired by telecom major Airtel in the last few months

Ø  For RCOM, it may come as a whiff of fresh air as banks are trying to encircle the company for initiation liquidation

 

Ø  Government to probe if promoters exaggerated power project costs Ø  The government view has been that the problem was aggravated by promoters overstating project costs

Ø  This becomes all the more relevant in the light of the government tightening the IBC rules by an ordinance

 

Ø  Centre to sanction a total of Rs.100,000 crore for Tamil Nadu infrastructure Ø  This money is largely likely to be used for highways and port related projects to give a big boost to the TN economy

Ø  This move assumes added importance in the light of the recent political developments in Tamil Nadu

 

Ø  Government has exempted oil & gas mergers from CCI approvals Ø  The CCI normally has to approve any merger that is likely to create a near monopoly situation in the industry

Ø  However, in case of oil & gas this merger is not market driven but driven more by scale and oil security considerations

 

Ø  Government clarifies that there is no proposal to withdraw cheque books Ø  A few newspapers had carried this report as a measure to promote the concept of digital banking in a bigger way

Ø  However, with limited clearing facilities, inadequate manpower and time lags, it was always impractical

 

Ø  By FY20, NBFCs may hold 20% of the total loan book as per a report Ø  NBFCs have moved in rapidly to bridge this large gap in funding due to PSU banks lagging in credit growth

Ø  NBFCs are less regulated and hence they have greater flexibility in structuring solutions

 

Ø  Havmor exits ice-cream business and sells out to Lotte of South Korea Ø  The consideration of Rs.1020 crore will only include the ice creambusiness and the restaurants will continue

Ø  Havmor was already under pressure after the aggressive sales plans of AMUL and Vadilal in Gujarat

 

Ø  Indian refiners processed record crude in the month of October Ø  Nearly 5.2 million barrels per day of crude were processed during the month of October by Indian refineries

Ø  India has already emerged as the third largest oil consumer and this has given substantial clout in negotiations

 

Ø  Government may accord to special infrastructure status to logistics Ø  Logistics is likely to be the one key sector to benefit in the post-GST scenario due to revamped logistics networks

Ø  Infrastructure status will enable easier funding at lower cost of credit as well as interest from PE investors

 

Ø  India may cut back on its annual health budget by $5 billion Ø  This is being seen as a huge cut for an economy that is already struggling to improve its social indicators

Ø  That is approximately 25% cut in the overall health budget and intended to contain the fiscal deficit

 

Ø  Trade deficit for first 7 months up by 60% on a YOY basis Ø  The trade deficit for Apr-Oct period touched a level of $88 billion, sharply higher than last year

Ø  Strong rupee has helped rupee to strengthen leading to a surge in imports and weak export performance