News Announcement |
Impact Analysis |
Karnataka Assembly throws up a fractured verdict |
- While the Governor has invited the BJP to form the government, the numbers are still unclear
- The Supreme Court judgement will also have a bearing since the Congress-JD(S) combine already has 116 seats
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China may help the US by reducing its trade surplus by $200 billion per year |
- China current runs a trade surplus of $375 billion and that has been one of the complaints of the Trump government
- China will now look to increase its imports of US products to ensure that this trade deficit level comes down gradually
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Bajaj posts another stellar quarter of growth and margins |
- Bajaj has managed to grow its profits and margins over the last 5 years on the back of a strong retail penetration
- With Gross NPAs under 1%, Bajaj Finance is already one of the most profitable and efficient NBFCs in India
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Crude oil crosses the psychological mark of $80/bbl |
- This was largely driven by supply constraints, sanctions on Iran and rising demand for oil in line with a global GDP revival
- India relies on imports for 75% of its oil needs and this could become a big policy challenge for the government
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Indian rupee depreciated below the Rs.68/$ mark this week |
- Apart from oil, the worries over rising CAD and heavy demand from importers also played its role
- RBI has not yet started intervening in the currency markets as a weaker rupee will be beneficial for exports
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India could see $460 million outflows on MSCI rebalancing |
- This rebalancing was necessitated after the MSCI included China A-Shares into the MSCI-EM index
- India’s weightage in the MSCI will come down by 14 basis points forcing ETFS and Index Funds to sell
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Numetal makes a fresh Rs.370 billion offer for Essar Steel |
- Numetal has called for fresh bidding after it was disqualified over the directorship of a Ruia scion on its board
- Arcelor had bid for Essar Steel in February and now has also agreed to repay the Uttam Galva loan to be eligible
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RCOM and Ericsson may finally settle their $170 million dispute over dues |
- The Ericsson demand had threatened to derail the RCOM deal with Jio and push the company into NCLT
- However, with a $4 billion deal with Jio in the offing, an out-of-court settlement with Ericsson may be the way forward
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SC accepts RBI’s plan to stay all crypto currency cases in courts |
- This virtually bars any court in India from accepting petitions on the subject of crypto currencies
- All such cases will be consolidated in SC as a single case so that a proper centralized approach could be crystallized
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Domestic air traffic grows by 26% in the month of April 2018 |
- Indigo continued to dominate with 39.8% market share with Jet, AI and Spice Jet accounting for the next 40%
Growth in air traffic has been one reason why aviation stocks are still attractive despite rising crude oil prices |
10-year bond yields surge to 7.90% in the Indian bond markets |
- That rise in yields virtually takes away most of the yield correction we saw post the monetary policy
- At the short end of the debt markets, call money rates also crossed the 6% mark before settling slightly below the mark
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Harvard economist raises concerns on EM CAD and EM government debt |
- Compared to 2008, Current Accounts of EMs has moved from an average 4% surplus to a deficit
- Also government debt in EMs as a percentage of GDP has risen from under 30% in 2008 to 50% currently
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Goldman Sachs expects repo rates to be unchanged in June Policy |
- With inflation higher at 4.58%, Goldman sees status quo on rates with a hawkish tone
- Goldman expects that the government may wait to see the outcome of MSP in the Kharif season before a rate call
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Petrol and Diesel rate hikes could be back in the coming weeks |
- With Karnataka elections completed, the focus could shift back to the price of petrol and diesel
- With budgetary constraints preventing an excise duty cut, higher petrol and diesel prices could fuel inflation
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Fitch worries about the $19 trillion debt of emerging markets |
- According to Fitch the biggest worry is that this debt has grown four-fold from $5 trillion in the year 2008
- While interest rates drove this binge, a stronger dollar could actually push a lot of borrowers into bankruptcy
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HUVR and ITC flatter the street with strong Q4 numbers |
- Both the segments saw a sharp growth in volumes in the FMCG segment, especially HUVR at 11% top-line growth
- The FMCG segment has been seeing the rural demand grow at a much faster rate with higher rural spending power
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Massive steel capacity expansion in the anvil among steel makers |
- JSW Steel plans to sink in nearly $6 billion to expand its capacity by 37% in the next 2 years
- Tata Steel is already having a 5 year plan to expand its capacity to 26 million tonnes
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Macquarie calls the end of the bull market in bonds |
- Bond yields in the US are already above the 3% mark and Macquarie expects this to go up to 4%
- Stronger yields are expected on the back of higher inflation, hawkish Fed policy and a revival in US growth
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PNB posts a record loss of Rs.13,400 crore in the fourth quarter |
- This loss was partially driven by the Nirav Modi scam and partially by the stringent RBI provisioning norms
- With gross NPAs above 18%, PNB would require urgent capital infusion to see through the next few quarters
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CPI inflation came in 20 basis higher at 4.58% for the month of April 2018 |
- Higher inflation was driven by higher food prices and higher crude oil prices with its downstream effects
- The real picture on inflation may only be evident after the MSP impact on Kharif output is evaluated
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RBI puts a bar on fresh lending by Dena Bank to stem NPAs |
- Dena Bank was already under Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) with restrictions on dividends and top management pay
- Now, Dena Bank will have to stop lending activities altogether and just focus on recoveries of existing outstanding loans
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