News Announcement Impact Analysis
Karnataka Assembly throws up a fractured verdict
  • While the Governor has invited the BJP to form the government, the numbers are still unclear
  • The Supreme Court judgement will also have a bearing since the Congress-JD(S) combine already has 116 seats
China may help the US by reducing its trade surplus by $200 billion per year
  • China current runs a trade surplus of $375 billion and that has been one of the complaints of the Trump government
  • China will now look to increase its imports of US products to ensure that this trade deficit level comes down gradually
Bajaj posts another stellar quarter of growth and margins
  • Bajaj has managed to grow its profits and margins over the last 5 years on the back of a strong retail penetration
  • With Gross NPAs under 1%, Bajaj Finance is already one of the most profitable and efficient NBFCs in India
Crude oil crosses the psychological mark of $80/bbl
  • This was largely driven by supply constraints, sanctions on Iran and rising demand for oil in line with a global GDP revival
  • India relies on imports for 75% of its oil needs and this could become a big policy challenge for the government
Indian rupee depreciated below the Rs.68/$ mark this week
  • Apart from oil, the worries over rising CAD and heavy demand from importers also played its role
  • RBI has not yet started intervening in the currency markets as a weaker rupee will be beneficial for exports
India could see $460 million outflows on MSCI rebalancing
  • This rebalancing was necessitated after the MSCI included China A-Shares into the MSCI-EM index
  • India’s weightage in the MSCI will come down by 14 basis points forcing ETFS and Index Funds to sell
Numetal makes a fresh Rs.370 billion offer for Essar Steel
  • Numetal has called for fresh bidding after it was disqualified over the directorship of a Ruia scion on its board
  • Arcelor had bid for Essar Steel in February and now has also agreed to repay the Uttam Galva loan to be eligible
RCOM and Ericsson may finally settle their $170 million dispute over dues
  • The Ericsson demand had threatened to derail the RCOM deal with Jio and push the company into NCLT
  • However, with a $4 billion deal with Jio in the offing, an out-of-court settlement with Ericsson may be the way forward
SC accepts RBI’s plan to stay all crypto currency cases in courts
  • This virtually bars any court in India from accepting petitions on the subject of crypto currencies
  • All such cases will be consolidated in SC as a single case so that a proper centralized approach could be crystallized
Domestic air traffic grows by 26% in the month of April 2018
  • Indigo continued to dominate with 39.8% market share with Jet, AI and Spice Jet accounting for the next 40%

Growth in air traffic has been one reason why aviation stocks are still attractive despite rising crude oil prices

10-year bond yields surge to 7.90% in the Indian bond markets
  • That rise in yields virtually takes away most of the yield correction we saw post the monetary policy
  • At the short end of the debt markets, call money rates also crossed the 6% mark before settling slightly below the mark
Harvard economist raises concerns on EM CAD and EM government debt
  • Compared to 2008, Current Accounts of EMs has moved from an average 4% surplus to a deficit
  • Also government debt in EMs as a percentage of GDP has risen from under 30% in 2008 to 50% currently
Goldman Sachs expects repo rates to be unchanged in June Policy
  • With inflation higher at 4.58%, Goldman sees status quo on rates with a hawkish tone
  • Goldman expects that the government may wait to see the outcome of MSP in the Kharif season before a rate call
Petrol and Diesel rate hikes could be back in the coming weeks
  • With Karnataka elections completed, the focus could shift back to the price of petrol and diesel
  • With budgetary constraints preventing an excise duty cut, higher petrol and diesel prices could fuel inflation
Fitch worries about the $19 trillion debt of emerging markets
  • According to Fitch the biggest worry is that this debt has grown four-fold from $5 trillion in the year 2008
  • While interest rates drove this binge, a stronger dollar could actually push a lot of borrowers into bankruptcy
HUVR and ITC flatter the street with strong Q4 numbers
  • Both the segments saw a sharp growth in volumes in the FMCG segment, especially HUVR at 11% top-line growth
  • The FMCG segment has been seeing the rural demand grow at a much faster rate with higher rural spending power
Massive steel capacity expansion in the anvil among steel makers
  • JSW Steel plans to sink in nearly $6 billion to expand its capacity by 37% in the next 2 years
  • Tata Steel is already having a 5 year plan to expand its capacity to 26 million tonnes
Macquarie calls the end of the bull market in bonds
  • Bond yields in the US are already above the 3% mark and Macquarie expects this to go up to 4%
  • Stronger yields are expected on the back of higher inflation, hawkish Fed policy and a revival in US growth
PNB posts a record loss of Rs.13,400 crore in the fourth quarter
  • This loss was partially driven by the Nirav Modi scam and partially by the stringent RBI provisioning norms
  • With gross NPAs above 18%, PNB would require urgent capital infusion to see through the next few quarters
CPI inflation came in 20 basis higher at 4.58% for the month of April 2018
  • Higher inflation was driven by higher food prices and higher crude oil prices with its downstream effects
  • The real picture on inflation may only be evident after the MSP impact on Kharif output is evaluated
RBI puts a bar on fresh lending by Dena Bank to stem NPAs
  • Dena Bank was already under Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) with restrictions on dividends and top management pay
  • Now, Dena Bank will have to stop lending activities altogether and just focus on recoveries of existing outstanding loans