GDP ESTIMATES ARE GOOD, BUT NOTHING GREAT

  • GDP estimate at 7.2% should be a positive but full year estimate at 6.6% will surely dampen sentiments. Also the PMI-Manufacturing touching a 4-month low is not a very good sign. Markets may see some macro pressure on Thursday.
  • We have been aggressively pushing PNB and we feel the time has come to aggressively start looking at the stock to buy. Most of the near term and long term negatives are priced in and its NPAs are still a lot more comfortable
  • FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs.(-1751) crores while DFIs bought Rs.1596 crore on Wednesday. FPI selling has been unabated even on the last day of February and that will be the overhang ahead of the new LTCG rules.
  • Markets across Europe and Asia took a sharp hit with US increasingly veering towards 4 rate hikes. However, the fourth quarter GDP slowdown to 2.5% in the US may actually be positive for global markets. SGX is in negative territory.
  • UPL is a stock that we had spoken about around the Rs.710 levels. After making a strong support around that level, the stock has jumped up to the 728 levels. We see the stock riding the agri story all the way to 775-780 in a month’s time.
  • The sharp rise in cement production should be a good signal for Indian cement companies with names like Ultratech and Shree Cements to benefit the most. ACC and Ambuja may stay tepid due to the overhang of delay in merger.
  • The good news on Coffee Day Enterprises may be that the promoters are finally increasing their stake in the company. The stock has corrected from higher levels to around 315 and may offer a good opportunity for buyers.
  • As of now the focus should be on getting back to the agri theme and forgetting about the bank scam for now. There is still value in the markets..