NORMAL MONSOON FORECAST BUOYS NIFTY

  • With IMD giving a forecast of a normal monsoon in this year, the markets bounced to higher levels. The globally positive sentiments on the trade deal front and a pick-up in growth in the Euro Zone also helped.
  • The higher WPI inflation at 3.28% makes a strong case for a rate hike when combined with higher CPI inflation and weak growth. Markets are already factoring another 25 bps rate cut in the June policy.
  • FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs.713 crores while DFIs bought Rs.581 crore on Monday. The sharp turn in DFI buying was a welcome change after days of consistent selling on domestic flow concerns.
  • Markets across Europe and the US have been flat to negative. There has been selling at higher levels and that has kept the markets subdued. SGX Nifty is also weak in late trades but will largely be driven by domestic cues.
  • The FMP episode has exposed the vulnerability of Zee. The stock is unlikely to find buyers at the current price and anything lower will mean the value of the Zee shares as collateral will go down. It is Catch-22 either ways and target Rs.350.
  • With the immediate challenges on the trade war front and the BREXIT likely to take a back seat, it is time to start picking Bharat Force at the current price of Rs.513 for upside targets of 590 in one quarter.
  • With Jet getting deeper into the red, it may be time to buy a little more of Interglobe from the point of view of market share. The airline could easily cross the 50% market share mark if it gets its game right on this strategy.
  • The sharply lower trade deficit is likely to come as a positive. Also, the full-year trade deficit is well below the $200 billion marks for the full year.