TRIGGERS WEEKLY(DEC30–JAN03)–PREPARING FOR NEXT WEEK December 29, 2019

Trigger for the Week How will it impact?
Operation Twist Round-II is scheduled on 30 December
  • The second twist of Rs.10,000 crore is expected to push yields lower and bond prices higher; benefiting banks
PSU banks could remain neutral in the coming week
  • PSU banks are likely to be pleased with capital infusion in 3 banks but RBI report on rise in NPAs negative
Auto numbers for December could hold the key to auto stock prices
  • If the marginal recovery in auto numbers in November sustains in December then it should be a positive
Markets likely to be cautious ahead of core sector numbers on 31st
  • Manufacturing has been under pressure and core sector has already been in the negative for 3 months in a row
Keep  an eye on Prince Pipes listing on Monday 30 December
  • Year 2019 has been one of the best years in terms of IPO returns and markets will look to Prince for a good close
Reliance could remain under pressure due to Aramco issue
  • The $4.5 billion due from RIL has held up the $15 billion sale to Aramco. Pressure on RIL likely to continue
Market volumes could play spoil sport due to holiday season
  • Market volumes are expected to be lower and interest thinner due to limited institutional participation
Pre-budget hints on the economy, markets and tax will be crucial
  • Equity markets will prefer personal tax cuts, fiscal deficit control and higher infrastructure spending in Budget
Oil and rupee could be driving FPI flows during the week
  • Brent is already at $69/bbl and that is not good news for the INR. FPI sentiments likely to remain cautious
Current account data for September quarter to be out on 31 December
  • The CAD is likely to move up higher; something that will be negative for the INR and for sovereign ratings
Markets will look forward to cues on the US-China trade deal front
  • China has not shared the optimism of the USTR but a sober tone from Xi could enthuse equity markets
FII buying sustaining in the week will be positive for markets
  • FIIs have infused Rs.1.20 trillion into Indian equity and debt in 2019 and signals for 2020 will be the key
China manufacturing data for December expected this week
  • Greenshoots of growth in China will hold the key to sustenance of interest in the metal price cycle
VIX tapers further to 10.3 levels; close to its multi-year lows
  • VIX in the range of 10-12 limits Nifty downsides and markets could remain in buy-on-dips mode this week