Weekly Capsule (Feb 11– Feb 15) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
India imposes 200% import duties on goods imported from Pakistan
  • This was a reaction to the ghastly terrorist attack on CRPF Jawans on 14th Feb in which 44 personnel were killed
  • In the aftermath of the attack, India withdrew its Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status accorded to Pakistan
India becomes top buyer of Venezuelan crude in the month of February
  • Venezuela is already India’s third-largest crude supplier after Saudi Arabia and Iraq
  • The US recently imposed sanctions on Venezuela to force the Maduro government out of power
Avendus Capital eyes $1 billion fundraising to tap the ESG investors
  • Avendus is backed by KKR, one of the largest private equity players in the world
  • ESG entails investing in companies that are environmentally friendly, socially responsible and maintain governance
Nifty and Sensex fell for 7 days in succession on valuation worries
  • The A/D ratio was clearly negative during the week with the mid-caps bearing the brunt
  • Apart from higher crude prices, domestic pledged shares also put pressure on the market overall
RBI lifts a cap on FPI investments in corporate bonds
  • This was broadly laid out in the credit policy statement announced last week where 20% limit was scrapped
  • Now FPIs will have the discretion to decide how much they want to exposure to debt of a single group
RBI has pulled up Yes Bank for making the confidential report public
  • Last week, Yes Bank had divulged that the RBI had affirmed that there was no divergence in the Yes Bank numbers
  • RBI has pulled up Yes Bank for selectively disclosing part of a report that was supposed to be explicitly confidential
India’s trade deficit in January came in higher at $14.73 billion
  • This is sharply higher than the deficit of just $13.08 billion reported for the month of December 2018
  • While exports had moved up, the imports grew much faster despite crude prices being relatively lower
Infibeam is back to facing problems with its auditors
  • Auditors of Infibeam had raised some governance questions over advances given to vendors
  • This became all the more suspect as the advances were routed through subsidiaries, a serious governance issue
US-China trade talks appear to have made progress in the week
  • The right noises appear to be coming from China and the US on the gradual resolution of the trade war
  • While Trump was briefed by the Trade Representative, not too many details of the likely pact were divulged
US and Iran have come down heavily on Pakistan for abetting terror
  • The US has openly batted for India’s right to protect its integrity and take necessary military action
  • Iran has warned Pakistan after a similar attack on the Iran Guards even as Saudi has canceled a business delegation
CPI and WPI inflation came in much lower during January
  • While CPI inflation touched an 18 month low of 2.05%, even WPI inflation came in lower at 2.76%
  • CPI inflation was down due to weak food and fuel inflation. However, core inflation remained high at 5.4%
Crude prices moved above the $65/bbl mark during the week
  • The sharp rise in crude prices was driven by supply cuts promised by Saudi Arabia and the OPEC
  • The sanctions on Venezuela also spooked markets and took the prices of crude higher
The rupee weakened beyond the 71/$ mark on crude concerns
  • With crude above $65/bbl, the pressure on the INR was apparent. Consistent FII selling also put pressure
  • The rupee is likely to come under further pressure after the trade deficit for January widened
Parliamentary Panel wants the detailed investigation into LIC in IL&FS fiasco
  • The panel has raised doubts over the efficacy of LIC as the largest shareholder of IL&FS
  • The panel noted that the LIC neither took precautionary steps nor warned about the impending crisis
Parliamentary panel also calls for a review of credit rating methodology
  • The panel has now called for multiple ratings for the same instrument to avoid bias
  • The panel has also suggesting shifting to user paid ratings rather than issuer-paid ratings for bond instruments
NCLT restarts the Amtek Auto resolution process
  • The restarting was necessitated after Liberty House backed out of the deal on grounds of inadequate disclosure
  • However, the NCLT is proceeding legally against Liberty House and now the resolution has a timeline of just 140 days
A total of 2942 companies have pledged Rs.214,000 crore of shares
  • Pledged shares have become the bane for the markets after mid caps and small caps corrected sharply
  • The Pledge ratio continues to be above 80% in many cases and this limit is normally the flag off for a crisis
IIP growth for December came in lower at 2.4%
  • Weak manufacturing was the key reason for a tepid performance by the IIP number overall
  • Manufacturing accounts for 76% of IIP and also has larger implications for the GDP growth number
NCLAT gives time till Feb 19th to resolve the Essar insolvency crisis
  • The crisis began after Essar promoters a higher counter bid after the COC accepted Arcelor bid at Rs.42,000 crore
  • Ruias have the support of the operational creditors, who are normally shortchanged in most NCLT resolutions
The government expects all banks to exit PCA by June 2019
  • Prompt corrective action (PCA) was launched for banks with high levels of net NPAs and weak balance sheets
  • Removal from PCA will enable these banks to again built their loan books and also undertake business expansion
Income Tax department withholds Rs.1 trillion of corporate tax refunds
  • While there has been no official word, the withholding of refunds appears to be a tacit policy to manage liquidity
  • However, delayed refunds have a cost since it attracts interest and also impacts working capital for companies