Weekly Capsule (Feb 18– Feb 22) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
Sensex bounces over 550 points from lower levels in two days
  • The bounce in the Sensex came after a nearly 1620 points correction in the Sensex over 9 days of selling
  • The bounce can be largely attributed to short covering in sectors like auto, financials, and metals
Trump may extend trade talks deadline beyond the March 01st limit
  • This is important because, in the absence of a solution, the higher tariffs of 25% would kick in from March 01st
  • While the US and China have been talking, it is getting stuck at intellectual property rights and structural issues
Economic Offences Wing (EOW) to question 100 brokers in NSEL scam
  • The Rs.5600 crore NSEL scam had erupted in 2013 and had eventually led to the winding up of the exchange
  • EOW is investigating cases of laundering of money and other breaches of client trust plus mis-spelling by brokers
India trying to crystallize its response to Pakistan post-Pulwama
  • India has already withdrawn MFN status to Pakistan and also started applying diplomatic pressure
  • India has also been talking about cutting water supply from the Indus to Pakistan before a frontal response
MPC minutes underline the growing worry over inflation concerns
  • MPC broadly hinted at another possible rate cut in the April monetary policy on the back of growth concerns
  • The MPC had expressed concerns over manufacturing growth but expressed confidence that inflation was under check
UBS upgrades SBI from Neutral rating to Buy rating
  • UBS is betting on the NPA cycle bottoming out and the NCLT recoveries reflecting during the year
  • UBS is also positive on the distribution franchise of SBI, which is nearly 3 times the size of the second largest bank
Jet Airways shareholders approve the conversion of loan into shares
  • SBI, the largest lender to Jet Airways, will convert its loans into equity to hold a 51% stake in Jet Airways
  • While Goyal will lose majority control of Jet, it remains to be seen what Jet does with an airline in its portfolio
Brent  Crude touched a high of $67.73/bbl during the week
  • The rise in oil prices was driven by OPEC supply cuts despite the US touching crude production of 12 million bpd
  • The economic sanctions on Venezuela and Iran are also taking its toll on the oil prices
Adani Group eyes stakes in 6 AAI airports up for sale
  • With GMR throwing in the towel on airports business, Adani could stand to be the big beneficiary in its expansion
  • Adani would be looking at airports in Ahmadabad, Jaipur, Lucknow, Guwahati, Trivandrum, and Mangalore
Lenders may refuse to release Rs.260 crore to RCOM against tax refunds
  • RCOM urgently needs to deposit Rs.450 crore with the court for payment to Ericsson or it invites contempt of court
  • RCOM has been asking the banks to fund them against the Rs.260 crore tax refund that is due from the government
China agrees to buy US goods worth $1.2 trillion as a peace measure
  • This will help the US to reduce its trade deficit to zero, which had been the bone of contention in world trade
  • However, China is unlikely to budge on structural changes and on the issue of intellectual property protection
RBI to merge 3 categories of NBFCs under a single head for simplicity
  • Asset finance, loan and investment companies will now be merged under a single head of NBFC-ICC category
  • As per the last policy, risk weights will now be assigned to NBFC loans by banks based on credit rating
Gold prices get closer to $1350/oz on the back of global uncertainty
  • Gold has been one asset class that has been doing extremely well in the back of the trade uncertainty
  • In addition, the consistent weakness in the dollar is also taking the prices of gold higher denominated in dollar terms
India overhauls oil and gas exploration policy to reduce oil dependence
  • The new policy envisages more financial and marketing freedom to oil exploration companies
  • In addition, there will also be financial incentives for early production and also for production above targets
Government to recapitalize PCA banks to the tune of Rs.48,239 crore
  • Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) banks are likely to exit by June and this move will enable them to build their credit books
  • However, Moody’s has raised doubts on credit pick up as the lag effect of NPAs is likely to continue for another 2 years
January witnessed a slowdown in air traffic to just 9.1% growth
  • This is sharply slower than the 16-18% growth exhibited by aviation companies in the last 2 years
  • The fall in growth was largely on the back of flight delays and cancellations leading to reduced flight capacity creation
The rate of interest on EPF has been raised to 8.65% for this quarter
  • This is likely to further distort the yield structure in India due to the front ending of yields on safe government debt
  • On the downside, PF investors may end up with losses on the EPF investments in IL&FS bonds
Captive coal mines can now sell 25% of their coal output in open  market
  • This will create some genuine competition to Coal India and its subsidiaries in terms of domestic coal supply
  • Earlier the government had permitted companies to bid for coal mines purely for the purpose of selling in the open market
Indian API manufacturers show positive growth in business metrics
  • APIs are the active ingredients or raw materials that go into the preparation of drugs and medicines
  • Chinese competition has taken a hit due to stringent anti-pollution measures in China and that has taken prices up
RBI agrees to pay the government an interim dividend of Rs.28,000 crore
  • This will be used to predominantly fund the Rs.20,000 outlay this year on assured income to farmers
  • The government had budgeted a total payout of Rs.74.100 crore from the RBI and other financial institutions this year
Saudi prince pledges $20 billion to Pakistan; $100 billion to India
  • The Saudi prince almost came to Pakistan and India with a blank cheque book
  • However, India may not have been too successful in using the offices of the prince to isolate Pakistan diplomatically