Weekly Capsule (Feb 19 – Feb 23) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
Minutes of the MPC clearly hinted at caution in raising rates
  • MPC expressed uncertainty over rate hikes post Fed action considering that IIP was just showing green shoots
  • The vote was 5-1 in favour of status quo with only Michael Patra voting in favour of a 25 basis points rate hike
The rupee falls to a 3-month low of 65.10/$ on outflow concerns
  • Apart from FPIs pulling out money, the importers also rushed for cover once the dollar started strengthening
  • The recent bank scams has raised some serious concerns over the quality of vigilance in Indian banks
Vikram Kothari and his son arrested in Rotomac Rs.3700 crore scam
  • The Rotomac promoters have defaulted on loans worth Rs.3700 crores due to a slump in the pens business
  • The company had diversified into exports in a big way and this loss has also raised questions over round tripping
According to Bloomberg, contingent liabilities of banks could be huge
  • Conservative estimates put the total contingent liabilities figure at above the asset base of banks
  • While the contingent liabilities of PNB is still under 50%, many smaller sized banks are in a tighter situation
MSCI has warned India of a possible weight downgrade
  • This was triggered by the exchange move to stop supplying live data feeds to global exchanges
  • India has an 8.4% weight in the MSCI-EM index and a downgrade will mean outflows from ETFs
Tata Steel emerges as the biggest bidder for Bhushan Steel
  • The price bid by Tata Steel for the Bhushan group at Rs.70,000 crore was considered extremely aggressive by markets
  • For Tata Steel, this is the best chance to emerge as the biggest steel player in India with over 21 MT of steel capacity
US oil inventories fell by 1.62 million barrels for the week
  • US oil inventories is normally a major trigger for the oil prices to fall when inventories are building up
  • This weakness in inventories led to Brent Crude bouncing back to the $66/bbl mark in global markets
Former RBI deputy governor underlines the need for operational audit by RBI
  • This suggestion from Mr. H R Khan came after the Nirav Modi case where SWIFT lapses led to the Rs.11,600 crore PNB scam
  • PNB, in the meanwhile, is counting on the Bhushan settlement to write back its Rs.4900 crore provision to bail itself out
Aggressive selling in bond markets was seen in state-run banks
  • Most banks have been worried by the 125 bps rise in bond yields which is resulting in losses on their bond portfolios
  • The sharp rise in bond yields is a global phenomenon and has been aggravated by sharply higher inflation
NSE Nifty sees further addition in the weightage of the Nifty index
  • After Bajaj Finance came into the Nifty in Sept 2017, it is now the turn of Bajaj Finserv to enter the Nifty index
  • Another outperformer in these tough times, Titan Industries, is also going to be inducted into Nifty from April 02nd
NASSCOM paints an extremely bullish scenario for IT industry this year
  • NASSCOM chairman, Chandrasekharan, has projected 7-9% growth for the IT industry during the next fiscal year
  • The revival in IT growth is likely to come from better digital preparedness and a robust domestic IT market
NSE and BSE have been permitted to offer cross currency derivatives
  • This includes non-rupee contracts which are a better option to hedge risk in more complex market conditions
  • Like the ban on data feeds, this looks like another desperate measure to stem the off-shoring of currency volumes
Government to open up the coal sector to private competition
  • Coal is the most important input for power generation since India relies on thermal power for 70% of its capacity
  • This will pave the way for global giants like Anglo American, Rio Tinto, BHP and Glencore to partake in coal mining
SGX lays out elaborate plans to list the SGX Nifty at GIFT city in Gujarat
  • This comes in the aftermath of the exchange decision to stop the supply of live data feeds to global exchanges
  • SGX Nifty was extremely liquid and SGX will now have to replicate the same advantages via GIFT city
Government lays out plans for 8 PSUs to tap the capital markets this year
  • Some of the marquee names in the list are Bharat Dynamics, IREDA and Hindustan Aeronautics
  • The government has set an aggressive divestment target of Rs.80,000 crore and that includes the Air India sale
Indian digital spending could cross $100 billion by the year 2020
  • Interestingly, this spurt in digital spending is likely to be largely driven by rural and semi urban demand on mobiles
  • This could have big implications for established Indian ecommerce names like Flipkart, Paytm, and Amazon India
Friday could be a big day for Halol plant and for the future of Sun Pharma
  • The Halol inspection by the US FDA will be completed and the decision of the US FDA will be out on Friday itself
  • Halol contributes to a chunk of Sun Pharma’s revenues and profits and will determine the future trajectory of Sun
NSE sets the contours for MSCI to use NSE live feeds data
  • According to Limaye, MSCI will still get data to feed ETF investments into Indian exchanges
  • However, MSCI will not be permitted to use the same data for facilitating off-shore trading of derivatives on the Nifty
PNB has asked NIrav Modi to present a concrete plan for repayment of dues
  • Earlier, Modi has written to PNB saying that they had virtually shut Modi’s business by making the fraud public
  • Modi is guilty of perpetrating a fraud of Rs.11,400 on PNB by encouraging the use of fake LOUs to raise global funds
Reliance Jio has emerged as the 3rd largest telecom company in 18 months
  • Jio has overtaken Idea in terms of market share and is just marginally below Vodafone in terms of share
  • On a Q-O-Q basis, Reliance Jio managed to increase its market share from 13.9% to 19.74%
Uday Kotak raises questions over the need for so many PSU banks
  • Kotak believes that one way to address the $200 billion stressed assets is to reduce the number of PSU banks
  • Kotak also focused on the need for greater institutionalization of processes to avoid such incidents in future