Weekly Capsule (Feb 24 – Feb 28) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
GDP for Dec-19 quarter improves to 4.7% from 4.5% in Q2
  • The bounce in GDP was largely driven by a bounce in agriculture production on the back of a good Rabi crop
  • However, manufacturing continued to remain tepid even as services growth was at par with the previous year
Sensex loses close to 3000 points during the week on China worries
  • The worst hit were the frontline stocks with metals, autos and pharma stocks taking the brunt of the correction
  • Nifty and Sensex have now lost close to 10% from their recent peaks touched towards the end of December 2019
Core sector growth for January comes in higher at 2.2%
  • This is a positive development after the core sector growth remained negative between August and November
  • While oil, gas and fertilizers lagged, the positive boost came from power, coal and cement production
Bharti pays Rs.18,004 crore as full and final settlement to DOT
  • It may recollected that Bharti had earlier paid Rs.10,000 crore to DOT after the Supreme Court stricture
  • In addition, Bharti has now paid Rs.8,004 crore to DOT of which Rs.5,000 crore is being deposited as ad-hoc
Gold sustained above the $1650/oz mark during the week
  • Even as stock markets faltered and there were concerns over GDP growth, there was a safe haven shift to gold
  • Gold holdings at the SPDR ETF are at the previous peak gold holdings level seen in 2012
Brent Crude corrects closer to $50/bbl as Chinese demand plays spoilsport
  • Crude prices have been falling sharply as China consumes 14% of global oil and that demand is down by 20%
  • In the last 3 months, crude prices have lost close to 30% and that has clearly pointed towards an economic slowdown
Emerging market stocks see value depletion of $600 billion
  • Most emerging markets have large dependencies on China and such sectors have been deeply hit
  • In addition, the global investors have adopted a risk-off approach and preferred debt over EM equity
NSO has pegged full year GDP growth at closer to 5%
  • This presupposes a growth rate of nearly 5.8% in the last quarter of the current fiscal year
  • That does sound a tad optimistic considering that the overhang of the Chinese virus will also be a major issue
SBI Cards mops up Rs.2800 crore from anchor investors at Rs.755 per share
  • The bids were much higher than the shares offered hinting at strong institutional interest in the stock
  • With the IPO opening in tough market conditions, the BRLMs are relying on institutions and SBI brand to sell the IPO
Dow suffered the biggest weekly correction since 2008
  • In a way, the previous week was reminiscent of the Lehmann crisis of 2008 in terms of market impact
  • Dow has lost more than 10% from its recent peak and even NASDAQ has been a participant in the correction
SEBI chief gets an extension of 6 months beyond his tenure
  • In the midst of volatile markets, the Finance Ministry opted to continue with Mr. Tyagi for another 6 months
  • There are internal and external candidates who are currently in the running for the top job at SEBI
RBI approves new CEO appointment for IndusInd Bank
  • Sumant Kathpalia, who is an insider of the bank, will take over as the next CEO of IndusInd Bank after Sobti retires
  • Like Sobti, Kathpalia is also an ex-AMRO hand and this could be a vote for continuity of banking policies at IndusInd
April-January fiscal deficit touches 128% of revised estimates
  • It may be recollected that fiscal deficit for the year had been expanded from 3.3% to 3.8% due to revenue constraints
  • This could create a question mark over yields and also on how it will impact the sovereign ratings
India Cements emerges among the top performers in February
  • The stock rallied sharply after some large investors bought a large stake in India Cements
  • India Cements, like other South based cement companies, has been enjoying sharply better pricing
FPIs pull  out Rs.11,368 crore during the week from equities
  • There was concerted risk-off selling by the FPIs on all the five days of the week on pandemic fears
  • During the week, FPIs have been selling in equity and in debt showing a general aversion for EM asset classes
Central banks may be preparing for another round of loosening
  • Probability of the Fed easing interest rates has gone up to 75% giving a hint that the US may be mulling rate cuts
  • The RBI may also opt for rate cuts if growth falters despite inflation concerns so as not to derail growth
Indian gas demand to rise by 66% in the next five years
  • The biggest demand for gas is expected to come from city gas distributors rolled out across 400 districts
  • Large players like GAIL are investing more than Rs.1 trillion to prepare itself for a gas driven future
Donald Trump’s visit made a bang but there was not much concrete for India
  • India was expecting hints of a free trade agreement (FTA) from Trump, but trade deal has been put off
  • Trump repeated his pet peeve about India not opening up its economy adequately and keeping tariffs too high
Investors will be allowed to directly purchase funds from the exchange
  • Currently, this facility is only given to the registered brokers and to the independent financial advisors (IFA)
  • Now customers will be able to purchase Direct Plans on the exchange platform reducing the float risk
Global investors approach AAR for tax deducted by Wal-Mart on Flipkart sale
  • Out of the $16 billion deal, Wal-Mart had deposited capital gains tax of Rs.7439 crore with the IT department
  • Sellers need to get a certificate under Section 197 for exemption from tax under the DTAA
Government moves to assuage fears of Mauritius entities
  • This fear among FPIs was due to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) putting Mauritius in the grey list
  • This had raised concerns over whether the Mauritius entities would be barred from operating in India