Weekly Capsule (Jan 15 – Jan 19) and Impact Analysis

Major News Item Impact Analysis
IDFC Bank and Capital First announce plans to merge in the ratio of 139:10
  • IDFC Bank gets the retail reach of Capital First while in turn CF gets the more solid balance sheet of IDFC Bank
  • IDFC Bank had been desperate to expand its retail footprint especially after the deal with Shriram fell through
Infosys reports 38% higher profits at Rs.5100 crore for Q3
  • The sharp rise in profits was largely the outcome of a US tax reversal post an advance tax agreement and is one-time
  • The sales growth forecast is still around 6.5% through the street would have preferred a bigger number
The $100 call option on Crude oil has emerged as the most active contracts
  • Globally, there seems to be a big bullishness on oil prices after the OPEC strategy of cutting output seems to be working
  • Traders in crude oil are also betting in a very big way on the revival of growth in EU and Japan
WPI Inflation comes in slightly lower at 3.58% for December 2017
  • The lower WPI inflation was largely due to the impact of lower food prices during the month
  • Ironically, the WPI inflation is falling at a time when the CPI inflation is on the rise
Trade deficit for the month of December came in at $15 billion
  • The sharp rise in trade deficit was driven by higher oil prices and a sharp rise in gold imports
  • The trade import bill for the year is likely to be closer to $500 billion and the forex reserves cover just 9 months imports
The budget is expected to do away with the dividend distribution tax (DDT)
  • The DDT is uniformly imposed on all dividends declared by Indian companies and leads to double taxation
  • However, the government may choose to retain its 10% tax on dividends above Rs.1 million per year
Bitcoin cracks below the $10,000 mark as China and Korea crack down
  • Korea and China were two of the largest markets for Bitcoin trading and that has pricked the speculative bubble
  • That is bad news for Bitcoin which has corrected 50% in a month as more countries are likely to follow suit
Air India is likely to be split into 4 parts  before it is sold off
  • The core aviation business will be housed under one company while the real estate assets will be under another company
  • Air India will also hive off its ground handling and engineering operation into a separate entity, facilitating the sale
India’s oil imports have touched an all-time high of 4.4 million bpd
  • India already imports 85% of its daily crude oil needs and this sharp rise is due to a rise in refining capacity=
  • The government also fears too much dependence on imported oil and has started auctioning oil blocks
General Electric takes a $6.2 billion hit on its insurance business
  • Most of these losses pertain to the huge risks that GE took during the peak of the sub-prime crisis
  • GE, once an engineering behemoth of the world, has watched its sheen diminish sharply in the last few years
Morgan Stanley expects 2018 to be a turnaround year for Indian IT
  • This is largely likely to be driven by a pick-up in tech spending among the BFSI business, a mainstay of Indian IT
  • The economic recovery in Europe is also making the EU business flows more robust
India to auction a total of 55 oil and gas blocks this month
  • This is an aggressive move by the government to capitalize on the rising oil prices
  • The target is to increase its domestic crude supply from 1/3rd of total demand to 2/3rd of total demand
Hindustan Unilever flatters the street with a 28% growth in net profits
  • The big thrust came from the consumer segment which grew at 11% against a overall top line growth of 4%
  • Hindustan Unilever is also expected to benefit in a big way from the rural spending and rural demand
GST rates were cut on 29 goods and 53 service categories
  • This decision is part of the last meeting of the GST Council on 18th January which also focused on technical issues
  • The focus was on further reducing the rates of taxes on essential goods and services to curb inflation
Bharti Airtel takes a hit in the third quarter numbers
  • The profits for the quarter halved by 39% to Rs.306 crore, which was below the street estimates
  • The big hit came from TRAI halving the interconnect fees, of which Bharti Airtel was a big beneficiary
US government grinds to a halt as Democrats stall funding
  • This has happened in the past too under various regimes and leads to cutting down on public services
  • Public services, national parks and even the presidential office will see aggressive cost cutting till the funding bill is passed
IOC to commission Rs.2700 crore pipeline from Paradip refinery
  • The 1212 KM long pipeline will evacuate white oil products from Paradip refinery in Odisha
  • The Paradip-Hyderabad pipeline project will have a capacity to evacuate 4.5 million tonnes per annum
ONGC to acquire government’s stake in HPCL for Rs.37,000 crore
  • The deal values the government’s 51.11% stake in HPCL at approximately Rs.473/share, a premium of 15%
  • This will give a big boost to the government’s disinvestment program and comfortably exceed the Rs.72,500 crore target
PM Modi to represent India at Davos at the annual WEF summit
  • This will be the first time that an Indian PM represents India at Davos since Deve Gowda in 1997
  • With Mr. Modi’s ratings at an all-time high internationally, this will be the right time for India to make a mark globally
Reliance Jio turns in net profits of Rs.504 crore in Q3
  • The turnaround in 15 months was driven by an 82% rise in operating profits to Rs.2628 crore
  • Even as Bharti’s average ARPU slipped to Rs.123, Jio maintained its ARPU at Rs.154
India seeks steel ministry control over iron and coal
  • This needs approval of the PMO but the government sees a lot of merit in the move considering the steel growth story

On issues like iron ore experts, the steel and mining ministries have been at loggerheads and can now be resolved