Weekly Capsule (Jan 20 – Jan 24) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
ICICI Bank reports 158% growth in profits for the Dec-19 quarter
  • The sharp rise in the net profits was largely driven by halving of provisions and contingencies
  • However, the bank also witnessed a sharp rise in the BB and below rated pool of assets in its loan portfolio
CBDT calls for 20% TDS if PAN and Aadhar number are not quoted
  • The Income Tax department has clarified that 20% TDS will be mandatory under Section 206-AA of the Act
  • The government had once again postponed the deadline for linking of Aadhar and PAN from December last year
Ind-Ra downgrades Vodafone NCD rating from BBB to BBB minus
  • The downgrade was necessitated after there were serious doubts about the ability of Vodafone to service AGR dues
  • This would also mean that lenders and MFs who have invested in these bonds will have to take additional write-offs
CLSA estimates cuts in personal tax rates in the Union Budget 2020
  • According to CLSA, these expectations have been built after the cut in corporate taxes in September last year
  • CLSA expects the slabs to be moved up and also the rates to be cut across the board
Bank of Baroda reports loss of Rs.1407 crore on higher provisions
  • To a large extent, the higher losses were a partial reflection of the merger of Dena and Vijaya Bank into BOB
  • Otherwise, the bank did well on other parameters like the Net interest margins, NII growth and even on gross NPAs
Global markets continue to bear the brunt of the Chinese Corona virus
  • The Chinese virus has already resulted in over 40 deaths and has affected thousands more
  • With the virus being hard to treat, the markets are afraid that the impact on demand could be much sharper
Infosys dismisses news of SEBI calling for forensic audit of Infosys
  • Newspapers had reported that SEBI had called for forensic audit after the whistleblower allegations; which Infy denies
  • The whistle blower had alleged that the CEO and CFO had deliberately overplayed profits to keep prices buoyant
JSW Steel saw Q3 PBT falling by 82% on the back of weak realizations
  • The weak realizations ensured that top-line revenues were also lower by 23% on a YOY basis
  • Most steel stocks had been under pressure for some time now due to cost pressures and dumping from Asian economies
After Trump, it looks like India will also be moving the protectionist way
  • India is likely to target imports to the tune of $56 billion from select nations for higher import duties
  • This move is likely to hit products ranging from mobile phones, chemicals, jewellery and handicraft items
Fiscal deficit expected to widen in Budget 2020 to 3.8%
  • This would be in line with the 50 bps leeway permitted by the NK Singh committee on fiscal deficit limits
  • The high fiscal deficit has been the outcome of weak consumption leading to fall in direct and indirect taxes
Crude oil prices crack below $61/bbl  on China virus concerns
  • Oil prices had already been under pressure due to the US Supply likely to cross 21 million bpd by end of 2020
  • In addition, the Chinese virus also raised fears that demand could see a slowdown across China and most of Asia
Power Grid moves Supreme Court against Rs.22,000 crore AGR demand
  • DOT has sent AGR notices to all companies that got spectrum allocation irrespective of their core business
  • Like GAIL and OIL, Power Grid also has a strong case on AGR as clubbing non-telecom business is a harsh interpretation
RBI governor calls for a mix of structural reforms and fiscal measures
  • Das has underlined that tax cuts and higher spending must be backed by fundamental structural changes in the economy
  • That is also a broader hint at the emerging opinion that monetary policy may have its limits in economic strategy
FPIs have sought clarification from SEBI on debt status in event of bankruptcy
  • This clarification was sought after the RBI hiked the FPI limit for short term debt from 20% to 30%
  • In the event of bankruptcy, as in IL&FS or DHFL, it is still not clear how the waterfall would function
Government may resort to $28 billion of off-budget funding this year
  • Off budget funding results in raising funds outside the fiscal deficit so that it does not get impacted
  • Generally, global rating agencies do not look at such off-budget funding too favourably in terms of ratings
Jio could touch EBITDA profits of Rs.52,400 crore in next 2 years
  • This will approximately entail a valuation of $66 billion leaving substantial upside room in the stock
  • The company is expected to touch 500 million customers and an ARPU of Rs.168 by that point of time
HDFC Bank ropes in Egon Zehnder to find a replacement for Aditya Puri
  • Puri’s term comes to an end in October this year when he turns and needs to move on as per RBI policies
  • While Puri has wanted an internal candidate, Parekh has been more in favour of reinstating Paresh Sukthankar
Sensex sheds 820 points in the first three days of the week
  • The fall in the indices was largely driven by the sharp IMF downgrade of India’s GDP growth to 4.8% for full year
  • The recent virus pandemic in China is also taking its toll on the global stock markets due to the likely demand compression
Adani group plans to become the largest solar player in the world
  • The group plans to enhance its renewable energy capacity to 5 GW by 2020 and to 18 GW by the year 2025
  • Adani is already the 6th largest solar player and proposes to allocate 70% of its power outlays into clean energy
Actual tax collections for 2018-19 were short of target by Rs.191,000 crore
  • This gap is likely to worsen in the fiscal 2019-20 due to lower growth and lower direct and indirect tax contributions
  • With disinvestments also tepid in the current year, the government may end up with a huge funding gap
Domestic air passenger traffic growth for 2019 falls to just 3.74%
  • This sharp fall comes on the back of an 18.6% growth in civil aviation in the previous year 2018
  • The shutdown of Jet Airways in April combined with aircraft problems in the 737 slowed down aviation growth