Weekly Capsule (Jul 22 – Jul 26) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
Donald Trump now plans to tax French Wines imported into the US
  • The trade war was triggered by France announcing a digital tax on US companies operating in France
  • Trump has promised to retaliate with a tax on French Wines, which has a very big market in the US
Iran situation continued to remain tense with tanker seizure
  • Iran seized two British tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to a similar action by the UK
  • While Trump has issued a warning to Iran, he has desisted from committing to any large scale action
London Stock Exchange may be buying Refinitiv for $27 billion
  • Refinitiv is one of the largest data analytics company in the world and LSE looks to combine with Refinitiv
  • Globally exchanges are increasingly looking at combining with data analytics providers for value added extension
Vodafone Idea reports quarterly loss of Rs.4873 crore for June quarter
  • The pressure on profits continued after the ARPUs continued to be under pressure for the quarter
  • Vodafone has already written off losses to the tune of Rs.20,000 crore in the last four quarters
Trump says, China could delay trade deal till 2020
  • Trump fears that China could actually delay the trade deal till the 2020 elections for maximum political mileage
  • The trade war between the US and China has led to a slowdown in growth in the US, China and rest off the world
Government may scrap vehicles more than 15 years old
  • The idea is to address the issue of vehicular pollution in the cities through more frequent pollution checks for old cars
  • However, this could indirectly boost the demand situation for the auto industry as renewal demand could increase
PMO asks the Finance Ministry to rethink on sovereign bonds
  • The PMO has been worried about the currency risk implicit in these sovereign bonds if the dollar appreciates
  • This risk becomes more pronounced as India was planning a 30-year sovereign bond, which could heighten the risk
IMF must restrict the US from misusing Currency Manipulator tag: Das
  • In the past, the US has accused countries like India and China of deliberately intervening to weaken currency
  • The Manipulator tag allows the US to take punitive action against nations trying to boost exports this way
Investors lose Rs.150,000 crore of market value during the week
  • The losses were driven by a sharp correction in the financials and auto stocks on worries over rising NPAs
  • This sharp correction also ensured that the July F&O series turned out to be the worst in last 9 months
India’s Kharif output lags as monsoons remain patchy
  • With a near 35% shortfall in rains in July, the Kharif sowing is surely going to get affected according to agri experts
  • Weak rainfall, leads to lower farm incomes and higher food grain prices leading to a spike in food inflation
Consumer financing boom may have peaked in India; Chris Wood
  • Chris Wood of CLSA believes that the sweet spot of easy money and low cost of funds is now over in India
  • This could lead to a weakening of the consumer financing book, that had led a lot of NBFC stocks higher
Maruti and Tata Motors announce weak results for the quarter
  • In the case of Maruti and Tata Motors there was de-growth in sales and also a fall in profits
  • Auto companies are currently caught between weak demand and rising input costs, which is squeezing margins
Indian auto parts makers to lay off nearly 1 million workers
  • This has been necessitated by the weak auto demand which is stressing out most ancillary manufacturers
  • The auto ancillary segment currently employs around 5 million hands and this means 20% of the jobs will go
FPIs withdraw $1.75 billion in the first 25 days of July
  • The selling by FPIs became specifically acute after the Union Budget announced revised FPI tax norms
  • Buyback tax combined with higher FPI tax surcharge have sharply dampened equity sentiments among the FPIs
Zee may be facing a hurdle in getting out if its debt crisis
  • The big challenge for Zee was to repay the debt by September and was counting on the Dish sale to Airtel
  • However, the deal appears to have run into rough weather due to Airtel having concerns over valuation
ECB chief has committed to let the dovishness continue in policy
  • ECB chief, Mario Draghi, has kept the option of further rate cuts and QE open to tackle economic slump
  • Former IMF chief, Christine Lagarde will soon be taking over as the chief of ECB from Mario Draghi
Boris Johnson takes over as the new Prime Minister of Britain
  • One of his first challenges will be to complete the BREXIT formalities before October 31st
  • UK can either just walk out of BREXIT, or insist on a deal or just call for fresh elections in Britain
HDFC and SBI spar over Jet Airways’ BKC property at NCLT
  • SBI has objected to HDFC seeking to keep the BKC property of Jet outside the NCLT process for resolution
  • HDFC wanted separate treatment for the BKC property as it was specifically mortgaged by Jet for a credit facility
IMF cuts India’s growth rate target by 30 basis points to 7%
  • According to IMF, India was unlikely to grow at above 7% in the next two years due to domestic issues
  • Apart from the consumption slowdown and the liquidity crunch, IMF has also warned of global headwinds