Weekly Capsule (Mar 16 – Mar 20) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
Sensex and Nifty recover after 4 days of continuous fall
  • Both Nifty and Sensex touched new lows in the week as the Coronavirus situation worsened during the week
  • The bounce was largely driven by short covering and it remains to be seen if it can sustain in the coming week
Dow Jones Index lost the most in a single week since the 2008 crisis
  • After a strong start, the Dow on Friday gave up all its gains and more and closed 908 points lower in trade
  • The rapid spread of the virus in the US, massive shutdowns and the likely impact on GDP growth spooked markets
Brokers and investors start demanding scrapping of LTCG tax
  • The demand is to scrap the LTCG tax so that investors have an incentive to stay invested in equities for the long term
  • In addition, the markets are also demanding that dividends and capital gains be made totally tax free for investors
Yes Bank resumes normal operations and is off to a smooth start
  • RBI had readied a war chest of Rs.60,000 crore to handle any run on deposits in Yes Bank, but that was not required
  • The SBI assurance appeared to work as well as the confidence that Yes Bank will shore up funds with Rs.20,000 crore CDs
Alliance Bernstein downgrades HDFC Bank target price to half
  • The downgrade of HDFC Bank comes in the backdrop of a surge in unsecured creditors and succession planning issues
  • The HDFC Bank stock is already available at a P/E ratio of less than 12X, one of the cheapest in recent memory
SEBI steps in to tackle volatility by making short selling harder
  • Under the new rules selling in futures will only be permitted with underlying after OI crosses Rs.500 crore
  • In addition, the margins have been increased and the MWPL limits have been brought down to curb volatility
RBI to purchase bonds worth Rs.30,000 crore in the coming week
  • This is part of the RBI open market operations (OMO) to infuse liquidity into the financial system
  • RBI has stayed away from cutting rates although most of the countries across the world have already taken the plunge
Court sends Rana Kapoor into judicial custody till the 02nd of April
  • Rana Kapoor is being investigated by the ED under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act
  • He is alleged to have created dummy accounts and transactions to transfer money into foreign accounts
Japan’s Kubota to acquire 10% stake in Escorts Ltd. for Rs.1042 crore
  • The acquisition happens at a price that is almost a 40% premium to the current market price
  • This deal will consolidate a relationship that has been existing as a joint venture for a very long time
ONGC and GAIL bounce back on mega dividend plans
  • PSU companies are declaring mega dividends to help the government meet its revenue targets for the  year
  • In addition, private companies are also declaring big dividends to escape the higher tax incidence post April 2020
India looks to fill up its strategic petroleum reserves with crude
  • The idea is to maintain a minimum inventory for half a month of local oil needs to ensure oil security
  • Normally, countries adopt the practice of expanding their oil reserves at a time when oil prices are at a low
Pharma stocks lose less than the Nifty in the month of March
  • While the Nifty lost nearly 25% in March, the Pharma Index lost only 11% during the month
  • Apart from the weak rupee, the pharma stocks also gained due to the sharp pick-up in demand for generics and APIs
MP Chief Minister, Kamal Nath, resigns ahead of the trust vote
  • That was inevitable after the speaker accepted the resignations of the 16 Congress MLAs
  • Earlier the Supreme Court had ordered the speaker to hold the trust vote before 5 pm on Friday the 20th of March
NBFCs worried over spike in yields on commercial paper (CP)
  • CPs have been a popular short term instrument for the NBFCs to borrow money to on-lend in the markets
  • However, the recent selling in CPs has led to a sharp spike in yields putting at risk the cost of funding for these NBFCs
SEBI extends the last date for quarterly and annual financial results
  • The dates for quarterly filing and annual filing have been pushed back by 45 days and 1 month respectively
  • This has been triggered by the Coronavirus scare which led to a partial to virtual shutdown for most businesses
Carnage continues on IndusInd Bank on the stock markets
  • The stock has lost nearly 50% since the beginning of March and over 85% since the beginning of the year
  • After the Yes Bank episode, the markets have become wary of any private bank that that has high NPA potential
Rupee breached the Rs.75/bbl mark during the week
  • This was largely driven by an impending slowdown, a strong dollar index and a surge in FII flows out of India
  • While the RBI has been on the sidelines, it did intervene to support the rupee around the 75 mark
Most agencies downgrade India GDP for FYF21 and FY20
  • The consensus downgrade for FY21 appears to be from 5.7% down to 5.1% due to the Coronavirus aftermath
  • The FY20 GDP growth may take a big hit in the fourth quarter and may even end up below 4% in the quarter
Supreme Court rejects plea for reduction in AGR charges
  • Supreme Court came down heavily on the DOT and the telecom companies for non-adherence to the order
  • There will be an additional hearing in April where the Solicitor General will present the DOT cases
Government likely to cut rates on small savings by next month
  • This has been necessitated to prevent the distortion of the yield curve due to the tax shields on small savings
  • In addition, the high rates on small savings were also making it tough for banks to cut rates and transmit repo cuts
IT sector takes a big hit in value during the month
  • The market cap loss on IT sector has been to the tune of nearly $31 billion in the month of March
  • That is despite the strong dollar. IT stocks have been hit by fears that the slowdown could hit IT spending substantially