Weekly Capsule (Oct 21 – Oct 25) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
Rating agency, Fitch, downgrades full year FY20 GDP growth to 5.5%
  • This is the lowest full year estimate put out by any rating agency and a sign of consumption stress
  • Fitch has specifically pointed to the liquidity pressures created by the NBFC crisis as a key trigger for this growth downgrade
Samvat 2075 ends with more than 10% returns on the Nifty
  • The returns were largely driven by a handful of stocks like TCS, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Infy and Hindustan Unilever
  • The index performance in Samvat 2075 has been the best performance in the last four years
BJP close to forming government in the state of Haryana
  • The JJP party of the breakaway Chautala faction with 10 seats has agreed to support the BJP in Haryana
  • The shape of the government in Maharashtra is yet to fully crystallize although the BJP+SS have a clear majority
Reliance to hive off telecom debt into a separate company
  • This will be part of a complex structure wherein RIL will invest in the optionally convertible bonds of the unit
  • This will leave Jio with a net debt of just Rs.35,000 crore towards spectrum fees, enabling better valuations
US and China may be close to finalizing Phase 1 of the trade deal
  • This assumes a lot of significance ahead of the critical meeting between Donald Trump and Xi of China
  • While the US has put off tariff hikes, China will buy more of US agri products but IP issues will be put aside for now
Tata Motors reports loss but much lower than anticipated
  • The improvement in performance had lot to do with the better off-take for JLR products across the globe
  • The company had also undertaken significant cost cuts to turn around the financial performance this quarter
Indigo reports a larger than expected loss for the September quarter
  • Indigo loss was despite a sharp increase in the revenues almost to the tune of 31%
  • While fuel costs were marginally higher, the pressure came from depreciation costs and maintenance costs
Maruti witnesses a 31% fall in sales during the September quarter
  • Maruti saw a sharp fall in sales and also led to the company market share falling by 300 bps to 48.29%
  • The big reason for the weak profitability was the substantially higher discount (at 30%) that Maruti had to offer`
SBI manages to grow profits almost three fold in September quarter
  • The quarter saw the gross NPAs of the company coming down by more than 220 bps to around the 7.50% mark
  • A major reason for the profits of SBI was also the profit of Rs.3800 crore it earned on the SBI Life partial stake sale
Piramal Enterprises okays fund raising to the tune of Rs.5500 crore
  • The whole purpose of the fund raising was to bank roll the future plans and provide capital adequacy to the company
  • However, the stock corrected by nearly 15% on Friday as the markets were not happy with the capital dilution
Microsoft pips Amazon to bag the prestigious Pentagon contract
  • Amazon was considered to be the favourite to bag the $10 billion Pentagon contract from the US government
  • However, Microsoft has managed to bag the contract and that is evident in the recent valuations of Microsoft
Supreme Court asks telcos to pay Rs.92,000 crore in 3 months
  • SC recently struck down the plea of telecom companies and allowed the government to levy the penalty on telcos
  • However, the government may go slow considering the stress that telecom sector balance sheets are already in
EU has agreed to the BREXIT extension but has not specified any date
  • The EU wants to set the date as a full and final date but only after clarity on the elections front
  • Johnson has already called for elections on 12th December if the BREXIT does not happen on October 31st
Gold and silver sales were sharply down by 40% this Dhanteras
  • The 40% fall in gold demand was due to a combination of weak spending and high gold prices
  • Most jewellery stocks took a sharp hit on the back of weak festival sales; normally a peak period for jewellers
Foreign currency assets with the RBI go past the $440 billion mark
  • This is the highest level of forex reserves in history and has been driven by limited RBI intervention in forex markets
  • Close to $410 billion consists of foreign currencies with the balance accounted by gold land Special Drawing Rights
Infosys comes in for trouble after whistle blower allegations
  • There have been allegations of concealment of information for showing more than actual profits by the company
  • Three law firms are also going ahead with class action suits against Infosys for causing losses
Tata MF moves NCLT to recover Rs.120 crore from DHFL
  • Similar plea has been already made by other funds like Kotak AMC, Nippon India AMC and Edelweiss AMC over DHFL bonds
  • There is a major issue for recovery of such bonds were the mutual funds are not part of the Inter Creditor Agreement
Large caps funds largely under perform in last one year; midcaps do better
  • The dichotomy is surprising because the large cap index actually did much better than the mid cap index
  • Among the large caps, the outperformance was limited to just a handful of front line stocks with pressure across
Brent Crude prices sustain above $61/bbl on US reserve draw downs
  • Apart from the reserve draw downs, the crude prices were also higher due to OPEC willing to cut supplies further
  • Brent crude has faced pressure at higher levels due to uncertainty over the US-China trade resolution
Copper prices rise for the third week in succession on supply concerns
  • The civil unrest in Chile (the world’s largest copper producer) has left the world copper market grossly under supplied
  • This has more than made up for the demand concerns on slower growth in the Chinese economy
UTI IPO to come out shortly to become the third listed AMC in India
  • Currently, only HDFC AMC and Nippon India AMC are listed on the bourses UTI will see a partially OFS
  • The issue size is expected to be around Rs.2600 crore with some of the original investors cashing out