Weekly Capsule (Sep 10 – Sep 14) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement Impact Analysis
Trump readies tariffs worth $200 billion on Chinese imports
  • This is likely to be in addition to the $50 billion of tariffs that the US has already imposed on China
  • With China also imposing counter tariffs, this is likely to become a full fledged trade and currency war
Sun Pharma gets its first USFDA approval after the warnings
  • The specialty drug that was approved was the only latanprost that is not formulated with benzalkonium chloride
  • This is significant because the Halol Plant is the largest Sun Pharma facility for US exports
RBI forex reserves again dip below the $400 mark during the week
  • With the RBI aggressively supporting the INR around 72.50/$, the dollar selling has again taken a toll on the reserves
  • The RBI currently has less than 9 months of import cover and this could only limit the flexibility of RBI to intervene
Government announces small steps to stem the fall in the rupee
  • The government eased the FPI norms on Friday and exempted Masala bonds from withholding tax to ease flows
  • However, there was no announcement of a fresh issue of NRI special deposit scheme as was widely anticipated
Reliance Infra is currently targeting an order book of Rs.50,000 crore
  • It may be recollected that the company had hived off its Mumbai Power business to Adani Transmission
  • Reliance Infra will now focus largely on executing infrastructure projects in an asset light mannerCPI inflation came in sharply lower at 4.69% for the month of August
IIP growth for July came in almost flat at the level of 6.6%
  • The IIP growth was largely driven by a spurt in manufacturing including robust growth from the capital goods segment
  • With manufacturing growth robust in the case of the GDP growth too, this is a strong signal of an economic revival
Trade deficit for August marginally narrowed to $17.4 billion
  • It may be recollected that the trade deficit had touched a high of $18.2 billion in the month of July this year
  • The bigger worry for policy makers is that the current account deficit (CAD) could now widen to nearly 3% of GDP
IL&FS could be on the brink of a major default to its bond holders
  • IL&FS also defaulted on the second round of ICDs with SIDBI with a liquidity shortfall of $475 million
  • IL&FS has sold bonds worth $12.5 billion to insurances and mutual funds and that is why it is a systemic risk
Brokers seek postponement of longer derivative trading hours
  • This is in the light of SEBI’s decision to increase trading hours till 11.30 pm to prevent trading volume exports
  • The longer hours are likely to create a logistical challenge for domestic and international brokers
Rupee rallies by over Rs.1 from its lows of the week
  • The INR had touched an all time low of 72.92/$ and had recovered to around the 71.85 level by week end
  • The turnaround had less to do with RBI support and more to do with the proposed revival package of the government
Yields on the 10-year benchmark also tapered during the week
  • The 10-year bond yields closed at 8.13% after touching a high of 8.23% during the week
  • The bond yields tapered towards the latter half of the week on the back of lower CPI and WPI inflation
Government encourages ethanol mixing in fuels
  • The government has announced 25% higher ethanol prices to encourage the mixing of ethanol with fuel
  • Now sugar companies are also permitted to use sugar cane juice for ethanol rather than just molasses
SEBI to open the gates for commodity hedging for foreign companies
  • This will be limited to directly hedging the underlying exposure of global companies in India
  • These hedge orders, subject to checks and balances, can be directly placed with authorized brokers
Turkish central bank raised the interest rates to a high of 24%
  • This was instrumental in stemming the fall in the Turkish Lira after it had lost nearly 40% against the dollar this year
  • Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has already restricted the use of foreign exchange for domestic transactions
SEBI directs accused NSE official to stay off the premises for the time being
  • This was after SEBI feared that accused employees may use their access to the premises to tamper with evidence
  • The former CEO and non-executive chairman had allegedly provided preferential access to certain brokers
Telangana CM, KC Rao, announces the dissolution of the assembly
  • This is a clear indication that the state elections may be held as early as December this year
  • The current chief minister, KC Rao, would be looking to take full advantage of the progress made in the last 5 years
Iran sees a sharp 28% fall in exports in the month of August
  • The sharp fall in exports was driven by the US sanctions which prevents other countries from importing oil from Iran
  • That has led to a spike in the price of oil in the last few days as Brent has gotten closer to the $80/bbl mark
Iran to buy 30,000 tonnes of rice from India in 2 tranches
  • This comes at a time when the Indian government is looking to reduce its oil imports from Iran over US sanctions
  • This is likely to put India into a diplomatic quandary as it will have to balance its trade and diplomatic relations
Amitabh Chaudhry to take over as the next CEO of Axis Bank
  • He will replace Shikha Sharma on January 01st when she demits office
  • Amitabh comes from HDFC Life and is the second CEO after Shikha from an Insurance background
Yes Bank to expand its retail loan portfolio by 75% in next two years
  • This will aid Yes Bank to shift its portfolio mix from a largely corporate mix to a retail mix
  • This is intended to coincide with Yes Bank’s foray into the mutual funds space in a big way